Poland's divisive election campaign has not only embittered its population and politicians, but has also soured relations with one of its key allies – Germany. This may soon become a regional problem.
The article originally appeared in Lithuanian.
Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party calls this weekend's elections a battle for the soul of the country. The toxic rhetoric is directed not only against the opposition Civic Platform, its leader Donald Tusk, but also against Germany.
The party has publicly criticised Berlin for being too slow to provide military aid to Ukraine and has made unfounded accusations of German interference in Poland's domestic politics. At an event, Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the party, told his supporters that “Donald Tusk has agreed to make Poland subordinate to Germany and therefore to Russia”.
A new campaign ad for the ruling PiS party shows the German embassy calling Jarosław Kaczyński to give instructions on policy, as they say used to happen under Donald Tusk
— Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 (@notesfrompoland) September 11, 2023
Kaczyński tells them Poles now decide things for themselves and puts down the phone pic.twitter.com/1BRFYNVTb7
Meanwhile, Tusk did not mince words either: “The Law and Justice party is simply poison. Every day, every month that they are in power, the threat to our security grows.”
A PiS advertisement has been circulating online, showing Kaczyński in a mock conversation with the German ambassador in Warsaw. He declares that, unlike before, the Polish authorities will no longer take orders from Berlin.
“Germany's image has been undermined in various circles of Polish politics as a result of its attitude at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, its reluctance to hand over arms. The current government sees Germany as a country that is moving towards dominance on the continent by deepening European integration,” Łukasz Jasinski, an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Relations (PISM), told LRT.lt.
However, the issue of World War 2 reparations is the one that is most fueled by the Polish authorities. The society is convinced that Germany has not atoned sufficiently for its crimes, which is why opposition parties struggle to oppose this line.
“PiS is instrumentalising guilt and using reparations as a tool in a shockingly anti-German election campaign. They are working hard to erase the positive results of Polish-German reconciliation,” Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, an expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS), told LRT.lt.
One can argue that Germany has under-compensated the victims of the Second World War, he added. But if the issue is reopened, it is difficult to see how the reparations should be paid and how big they should be, given that the Nazis waged war against what now constitutes 27 separate countries, Kleine-Brockhoff said.
Berlin has tried to improve its relations with Warsaw. When a Ukrainian air defence missile landed in Poland, killing two local civilians, the German defence minister proposed to redeploy Patriot air defence systems and Eurofighter fighters.
Although Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak initially said he would accept them “with pleasure”, he soon changed his mind after Kaczyński said the weapons should be sent to Ukraine.
“German officials facing PiS attacks have previously been advised to simply 'shut up', not to engage in fights with those who simply want to drag things out further. But this phase seems to have come to an unsuccessful end. The German government and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock are looking for ways to improve relations, trying to find offers that Poland cannot refuse,” said Kleine-Brockhoff.
However, Dietmar Nietan, the German parliamentarian responsible for German-Polish relations and cooperation, told the Financial Times that there are many “arrogant” ex-West German officials in the German and EU institutions who look down on the Poles and consider them ungrateful.
Therefore, no matter who wins the elections, the issue of WW2 reparations will continue to be raised, analysts believe.
“We should be focusing all our resources on a common fight against the main threat to our region – Putin's Russia – rather than criticising an ally on issues that go back to the Second World War. Since this is unlikely to happen, the issue of reparations will continue to be raised for some time to come,” said Kleine-Brockhoff, the GMFUS expert.
Poland is essential for Ukraine
The dissatisfaction in Berlin over the Warsaw statement is growing, along with fears that anti-German rhetoric will undermine Poland’s ability to lead Ukraine's post-war reconstruction and to help the country join the EU.
Behind the scenes, European officials say that unless Warsaw mends its relations with Brussels and Berlin, Poland could be replaced by Romania as the leading nation of the EU's eastern flank, which will not get involved in unnecessary disputes.
“Poland and Germany are critical to Ukraine's path to the West. Kyiv needs these two countries to work together to desovietise Ukraine's infrastructure and ensure its economic recovery,” said Kleine-Brockhoff. “Poor relations between Germany and Poland are becoming a major obstacle to Europe's policy towards Ukraine.”
Once Ukraine is admitted to the European Union, the Community's political weight will shift significantly eastwards and Warsaw's role can only grow.
Relations with Brussels
Kaczyński has already promised that if his party wins, he will continue the controversial reform of the judiciary and that he will “succeed” this time.
PiS reforms have already been criticised by Brussels and other member states, leading to the bloc freezing €34 billion in EU funds. Later, the Polish government has reversed some of its most controversial initiatives. Criticism of Warsaw has been muted by the war in Ukraine.
“But the problem of the destruction of Polish democracy has not gone away. [...] We are facing elections which, although free, will not be fair,” said Kleine-Brockhoff.
Poland's rulers, who have strengthened their mandate in the elections, may embark on a new campaign against Brussels and are already expressing hostility to the EU reforms proposed by Germany and France.
The EU is now perceived to be heading for another major wave of enlargement, with Ukraine and the Western Balkan countries set for accession. However, Western European capitals believe that this must be preceded by a reform of European decision-making structures and the abolition of national vetoes.
“The PiS government will block reforms in the area of taxation and foreign policy, where the countries would be at risk of losing their veto power. There are also different views on migration,” a senior Polish government official told Politico.
Berlin's relations with Warsaw could be mended by a tough German policy towards Putin's Russia and partial compensation for victims of World War 2, prisoners of Nazi camps and the return of stolen art.
“The current Polish opposition is less focused on problematic issues and seems more open to cooperation. Regardless of the election results, a lot will depend on the sustainability of the review of Germany's policy towards Russia and the end of the war in Ukraine,” said Jasiński, the analyst at PISM.
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