On Thursday, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda met with Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on the Polish side of the so-called Suwalki Gap, where they stressed the two countries were closely monitoring the movements of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus.
“Some Wagner fighters are close to our border, having taken up positions in the Grodno region, which means that this situation is very convenient for provocations both on the Polish-Belarusian and Lithuanian-Belarusian borders,” Nausėda said.
According to Nausėda, measures have already been taken to reinforce security on the border, including by updating plans on deploying the military.
Further reading
The Lithuanian president said the country needed clear algorithms in case of a crisis, including closing the border with Belarus.
“But this should be done in a coordinated way between Poland, Lithuania and Latvia,” he added.
Further reading
According to the president, any hostile actions by the Wagner troops would be considered actions taken by Russia.
Both Polish and Lithuanian officials say the presence of Wagner in Belarus, expelled from Russia following their short-lived rebellion in June, poses a threat.
Last weekend, Morawiecki said over 100 mercenaries had moved close to the Suwalki Gap, adding that the situation “is becoming even more dangerous”. On Tuesday, two Belarusian helicopters violated Polish airspace at the eastern border.
“According to our data, there are about 4,000 mercenaries [in Belarus], maybe a bit more,” Morawiecki said.
The Suwalki Gap is a 100-kilometre stretch of land separating Poland and Lithuania. It is flanked on either side by Belarus and Russia’s exclave of Kaliningrad. Military planners and Baltic officials worry the corridor may be seized in case of a potential conflict, sealing off Baltic states from the rest of Europe.
Despite Sweden's planned accession to NATO, the Suwalki Gap remains a target for Belarus and Russia, Nausėda said.
“Some people say the agreement reached at the NATO summit on Sweden's future membership is changing the geopolitical situation, and the strategic importance of the Suwalki Corridor is diminishing. I certainly do not agree with this view and I believe that the Suwalki Corridor remains a potential target of provocation by both Russia and Belarus,” Nausėda said.
Further reading
‘Up to 1,000 Wagner fighters’
Later, speaking to Lithuanian journalists, Nausėda noted that the number of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus was not final and could reach 10,000 in the future.
"The number of Wagner fighters in Belarus is not final and there's a plan to deploy up to 10,000 Wagner fighters. The process is now only halfway through. This is a serious force," Nausėda said.
Morawiecki said Russia was testing Poland and other countries.
"Wagner is particularly threatening. The group's units are being moved close to NATO's eastern flank to destabilise it. These are real threats that have been confirmed by our allies," the Polish prime minister said.
According to Morawiecki, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to "create chaos".
"Members of the Wagner group can be used to push illegal migrants from Belarus into Poland,” he claimed. “They can pretend to be illegal migrants to enter Poland's territory and that of other countries on the eastern flank.”
The Baltic states and Poland saw an influx of migration in 2021 when the Minsk regime opened a migration corridor via Belarus. Thousands of people, mostly from countries in the Middle East and Africa, were channelled toward the EU borders.
Officials say the regime of Alexander Lukashenko wanted to plunge the Baltics and Poland into chaos in response to EU sanctions, which were placed following Lukashenko’s brutal crackdown on the opposition.
Since then, the number of people attempting to cross the border irregularly has decreased. However, Baltic and Polish officials name “illegal migration” as a potential tool that Minsk and the Kremlin may use to exert pressure.
Newsletter
Every Friday morning.
