If Wagner forces are stationed in Belarus, just across the border from Lithuania, Vilnius will have to prepare for possible hybrid actions of the mercenary group, says an adviser to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda.
“They [Wagner forces] are not yet, I stress, in Belarus, but if it were to happen, we will certainly be ready,” Kęstutis Budrys told the radio Žinių Radijas on Tuesday.
After Wagner’s aborted march to Moscow on Saturday, the Kremlin announced that its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would be exiled to Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin added on Monday that Wagner troops would also be allowed to withdraw to Belarus. Prigozhin himself stated that Lukashenko had suggested ways in which Wagner could continue its activities.
“Having that across our border, we will have to pay more attention to the border and to what is happening in Belarus, and send a very clear message about where our tolerance limits are. They will be zero,” Budrys said.
According to the presidential adviser, Prigozhin’s forces are dangerous because they can operate in the “grey zone” through sabotage and infiltration operations – something Wagner has repeatedly demonstrated in Africa, Syria and the United States.
“This kind of uncontrollable element is a risk factor and we will have to really adapt – clearly, it is not up to the regime of [Belarusian leader Alexander] Lukashenko to control it,” the official said.
Private mercenaries, he said, are able to act in hybrid ways, while the government they serve can deny responsibility.
As a result, if Wagner forces were to appear on Lithuanian territory, the response would be different from that to an incursion of foreign troops.
“States will have to have other tools to fight against such possible activities – not necessarily military ones, but involving domestic structures, perhaps anti-terrorist ones. This is more akin to an action against sabotage groups than it is against conventional forces,” according to Budrys.
However, he stressed, the Belarusian government will be held accountable for whatever action Wagner mercenaries engage in.
“We will inevitably link any actions directly with the Belarusian regime – whether it is under their control or not, with or without their knowledge – because they have or are going to give shelter to such a criminal element,” he said.
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