Coronavirus infections in Lithuania will grow throughout April and are likely to peak in the first weeks of May, a Vilnius University scientist says.
“Preliminary models developed by Vilnius University researchers suggest that the peak of the pandemic in Lithuania will occur over the first weeks of May,” Vytautas Kasiulevičius, the vice dean of Vilnius University's Faculty of Medicine, said on social media.
He added that similar models elsewhere suggested the epidemic to peak on April 9 in Italy, April 14 in France and May 1 in Germany.
“Throughout April, the infections curve will be on the rise [in Lithuania]. It is possible that warmer weather will not have as big an effect as we all would like. No one yet knows,” Kasiulevičius said.
Despite the rising number of infections, the situation in Lithuania is partly controlled, he believes, but its “Achilles heel” is the big number of infections among medical workers.
“Medics getting infected and going into isolation en masse is a start-of-the-pandemic luxury that neither Italy, nor France or Spain can afford these days. Doctors there work even if they're infected,” Kasiulevičius said.
Of the 484 coronavirus infections confirmed in Lithuania by Monday, 51 are medical staff. The National Public Health Centre said last Thursday that over 500 medics were in isolation after coming into contact with someone with Covid-19.