Lithuania would have to consider escalation management if Russian fighter jets entered its airspace like they did in Estonia and Poland, according to an adviser to the country’s president.
"Poland's example is a very good one. We must state clearly that we will not tolerate such actions, but everything depends on the incident itself – how serious it is, whether a particular incursion poses a threat or not," Deividas Matulionis, President Gitanas Nauseda's chief national security adviser, told LRT RADIO on Tuesday.
"I may not be very popular saying this, but there is one nuance in such a case – escalation management, which is also important. That means if action is taken, it can go two ways: either our own forces respond or NATO's air policing mission, which is subject to certain restrictions on shooting down aircraft," he said.
On Monday, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski warned Russia at the UN General Assembly that any aircraft or missile entering his country's airspace would be shot down.
Matulionis said Lithuania should adopt the position that "if provocations intensify, we will have no choice but to take truly decisive action."
NATO air policing jets are scrambled several times a week to identify and escort Russian aircraft that violate flight rules.
Lithuanian officials have called for upgrading the air policing mission to an air defence mission, which would give eastern flank members more defensive capabilities.
In response to repeated airspace violations, NATO announced the Eastern Sentry mission.
Last Friday, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission and remained there for 12 minutes.
A few weeks earlier, around 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace during Moscow's large-scale attack on Ukraine. Warsaw called it a provocation, and Poland and its NATO allies scrambled their jets and shot down several drones deemed a potential threat.
In July, two Gerbera drones crossed into Lithuanian airspace from Belarus, one carrying explosives.
Tolerating airspace breaches risks escalation elsewhere – FM
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis warned that tolerating Russia's airspace violations on NATO's eastern flank could embolden Moscow to act the same way at other borders.
"Russia's latest provocations and escalation show that it flouts international law. The international community must recognize this as extremely dangerous behavior in clear violation of international norms. If we allow it at this border, Russia will do the same at others," Budrys said in New York on Monday.
"Other aggressive states will act the same way. Those who can take advantage of what is called the untouchability of a nuclear power. That is something we must prevent," he added.
NATO ambassadors will hold talks on Tuesday over the violation of Estonian airspace by Russian fighter jets, after Tallinn called urgent consultations under Article 4 of the Alliance's founding treaty.
Budrys said Lithuania and other countries want NATO to spell out how it responds to drones and fighter jets crossing their borders.
"Our interest is for this to become the norm in NATO, embedded in its mandate. And for Russia to receive a clear message that this is not just rhetoric but involves specific capabilities, specific weapons, and specific damage in response," the Lithuanian foreign minister said.
"To avoid escalation, you have to make clear to the adversary how you will treat one or another situation. That is why Russia must be told that such airspace violations come close to a military conflict, and it is in its own interest to avoid one," he added.
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