Unless urgent action is taken, over half of the world’s food industry will be affected by the freshwater crisis, according to a new report by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water. Lithuania is not among the most vulnerable countries, but might still experience water shortages over the next 25 years.
In July this year, the global average temperature reached an unprecedented 17.16 °C, breaking historical records. The effects of the climate crisis are now felt in all corners of the globe.
According to the report, water supply is under “unprecedented stress” due to the crisis, with global demand for freshwater set to exceed supply by 40 percent by the end of the decade.
Satellite data shows that freshwater supplies have been declining for decades, both globally and in Europe.
“For example, the Loire River in France has dried up so much due to drought that it has exposed a stone that no one has seen for 300 years,” said Žaneta Stasiškienė, Director of the Institute of Environmental Engineering at Kaunas University of Technology (KTU).
According to the report, governments and experts have grossly underestimated the water demand. While each person needs between 50 and 100 litres of water per day for health and hygiene, this figure rises to 4,000 litres, which also includes food supply.
Meanwhile, freshwater accounts for just 2.5 percent of the world's water supply, said Stasiškienė.
According to Gintaras Valiuškevičius, a hydrologist at Vilnius University, the resources of readily available and usable water are decreasing. It is also getting more difficult to extract water.
“In addition, water is becoming more and more unevenly distributed in time and space, with longer dry seasons, which particularly affect irrigated farming regions, and in some countries, easily accessible water resources have been depleted and are no longer able to recover,” Valiuškevičius said.
According to scientists, the increasing scarcity of freshwater is caused by several main factors – rapid population growth, excessive and unsustainable water use, water pollution, and climate change.
“The water demand is increasing naturally and not only for human consumption but also for the services we need, including in agriculture and industry,” said Stasiškienė from KTU.
Meanwhile, the rising temperatures are causing more and more water to evaporate without returning to its original sources.
“In developing countries, it is estimated that most of the water used for agriculture evaporates or seeps into deeper layers before reaching the fields,” said Valiuškevičius.
“Climate change is a major contributor to the uneven distribution of water resources throughout the year, with much of it flowing away in short-lived floods followed by droughts of increasingly longer duration,” he added.
More rainfall might also have a negative impact by impacting the quality of water.
“We have the opposite phenomenon, where torrential rains and floods devastate and damage water quality. When large volumes of water fall at the same time, it is a natural disaster because it destroys infrastructure,” said Stasiškienė.
The Economics of Water report identifies South Asia, the Middle East, the Sahel and North Africa as the regions most affected by water scarcity.
“In Europe, the situation is worsening in the southern part of the continent, where long dry spells have recently become more frequent,” said Valiuškevičius.
Northern European countries have been the most fortunate. Meanwhile, water supply is unevenly distributed in Eastern Europe.
According to Stasiškienė, it is unlikely that the planet will run out of fresh water. But while some regions will experience a direct shortage of water, other parts of the world will be affected by this problem due to an increase in climate migration and the impact on the economy.
According to politician and sustainability expert Ieva Budraitė, water scarcity is bound to affect water prices.
“Water suppliers will have to invest in more expensive ways of treating and supplying fresh water, eg extraction from deep wells, desalination of seawater. This could increase water prices for domestic use, industry and agriculture. Poorer sections of society will be particularly vulnerable to such price increases,” she said.
Agriculture is one of the world's largest water users, accounting for around 70 percent of freshwater consumption. This means that food prices could also rise.
“There will be less access to irrigation, which will lead to poorer yields and food shortages, especially in arid parts of the world. Such a drop in agricultural productivity could have a direct impact on food prices, increasing inflation and food security problems globally,” said Budraitė.
Rationing is already in place in Southern Europe, with bans on watering lawns and filling outdoor swimming pools during dry summers.
“However, if water shortages are severe, the rations may have to change – almost a third of the planet's population is already deprived of the water needed to meet basic needs,” said Valiuškevičius from Vilnius University.
Strict water rationing could lead to international conflicts, according to Budraitė.
This could happen in places where water sources intersect between various countries, for example, the Nile River which is a key source of water for Egypt and Ethiopia, Budraitė said.
“Water scarcity can exacerbate geopolitical tensions, encouraging states to fight over access to water sources,” she added.
This would also mean more climate refugees.
“When water resources become scarce, people in certain regions may be forced to migrate to other places where water is more abundant. Such climate refugees can add pressure on countries already struggling to manage their resources,” said Budraitė.
Baltics less affected
Meanwhile, Lithuania stands out in the global context – the amount of groundwater in deep aquifers suitable for extraction is almost five times higher than the country’s consumption.
“Lithuania has a unique situation compared to many regions of the world and even neighbouring countries – almost all of its drinking water comes from underground aquifers. For the time being, Lithuania's water resources are fully sufficient to provide all residents with water of the required quality,” said Valiuškevičius.
Water in our mains is usually supplied from deep groundwater aquifers and most of them are usually very clean. However, there is a problem with the quality of water in wells.
“Much of the groundwater – especially in more densely populated or intensively farmed areas – is quite heavily contaminated with nitrates. Studies show that nitrate levels exceed the limit values in about two-thirds of wells in Lithuania,” Valiuškevičius said.
However, Lithuania’s resources may soon allow exporting water.
“A decade ago, colleagues from Dubai came to our university, walked around Kaunas and told us that they were living on money from oil, while we would live on money from groundwater,” said Žaneta Stasiškienė, a researcher at KTU.
Finding solutions
Experts point at water extraction and wastewater technologies, as well as the desalination of seawater, as potential solutions.
“The first step is to restructure the system of water use in agriculture, with the introduction of sprinklers and drip irrigation systems, which could save up to 80–90 percent of the water currently used in this sector,” said Valiuškevičius.
“Water sourcing should also change: some districts may turn to seawater desalination, while others should try to introduce reusable systems – filtering wastewater and using at least part of the water for industry, agriculture and other uses,” he added.
Despite the interconnected nature of the world's water systems, there are no global water governance structures. The United Nations has held one water conference in the last 50 years and only appointed a special envoy on water last month.
“In many parts of the world, water governance is not well coordinated and international cooperation is often insufficient to effectively manage and share water resources between countries,” said Budraitė.
According to her, the situation in the European Union is a little better – the Water Framework Directive, adopted in 2000, aims to ensure that all water bodies in the EU are protected and used sustainably.
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