As Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election appears an increasingly likely possibility, Lithuania’s current and former diplomats agree that relations with Washington will change with him in the White House, though they believe it would still be possible to maintain a close partnership with the US.
Political analysts have little doubt that Donald Trump’s triumphant rise after the assassination attempt last weekend also brought him closer to electoral victory. If this happens and Trump is elected president of the United States, Lithuania’s relations with its most important ally will inevitably change, says the country’s ambassador to the US, Audra Plepytė.
“A new leader, a new president always brings changes, modifies relations,” she says.
But the core principle that the US is Lithuania’s strategic partner with whom Vilnius must maintain good relations will stay, she adds.
“Whoever is the master of the White House, Lithuania will continue to work with the US and maintain the best possible relations,” echoes Asta Skaisgirytė, foreign policy adviser to the Lithuanian president.
Conservative MP Žygimantas Pavilionis, himself a one-time ambassador to the US, believes that it is possible and necessary to talk with all politicians.
“We need to work with Democrats and Republicans and say – you are not each other’s main enemies. [...] It’s Russia, it’s China,” he quips.
Pavilionis recounts how a Republican taught him how to talk to Trump after he became president in 2016.
“First, say you have a border wall. Second, say you spend the right percentage [of GDP] on defence. Third, ask if he wants a third Afghanistan in Europe, [...] are you prepared for Europe to lose the war to Putin?” Pavilionis shares the tricks in speaking with Trump. “He doesn’t like to lose.”
Another former ambassador, Vygaudas Ušackas, says that Trump’s return would make the US a less predictable partner because the president himself would be unpredictable. Trump’s position on Ukraine or the Baltic states is still unclear. The Republican has previously said that, if he became president, he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours.
“Trump dreams of the Nobel Peace Prize. The fact that he is egocentric and that he has already stated that he is ready to trade Ukrainian territory and NATO membership with Putin sends an important message,” the diplomat stresses.
Trump has also joked that he would even urge Putin to attack NATO allies that do not spend enough on defence. He also said that the US would stay in NATO and would come to the aid of the bloc’s members if they paid their fair share to maintain the alliance.
That is why Ušackas says that Europe needs to set clear goals.
“Europeans are taking on greater financial and military commitments. Second, we need to make sure that we do not make promises that NATO will not expand, that there is no trade-in territories,” he says.
MP Dovilė Šakalienė, who sits on the National Security and Defence Committee, says Trump’s victory could encourage Europe to pull itself together.
“The devil is in the details, and the process will probably have to be faster if Trump is elected. In fact, it is to our advantage because Europe has and can carry more weight – the EU is the richest region in the world. It is not enough to talk,” Šakalienė believes.
A delegation of two US congressmen was visiting Lithuania on Monday to discuss the security situation and military cooperation with the president. The tenth shift of the US rotational force has been deployed at the Pabradė training ground since late May.
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