Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, along with seven other countries, joined the EU on this day in 2004. Initially underdogs, now the Balts feel their voice is heard much louder in Brussels, especially when it comes to Ukraine policies, but does it signify the EU’s centre of gravity moving eastward?
“France and Germany cannot ignore us now,” Žaneta Ozoliņa, Professor of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Latvia, sums up the role of the Baltic states within the EU.
The Baltics are also hailed as poster children of the EU’s enlargement policy: they adhere to democratic values, comply with international legal agreements most of the time, have so far avoided big political shocks, and, above all, always support EU decisions. This is the picture analysts paint of the three Baltic Tigers – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the Baltic countries and other Eastern European member states have taken the lead in shaping the EU policy towards Ukraine and Russia.
According to Ozoliņa, who has seen first-hand the path of all three Baltic countries to the EU, says that although Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn now have more influence, the old members – France, Germany, and the Benelux countries – remain the centre of power.
“The fact that the Baltic countries have succeeded in influencing EU decision-making does not necessarily mean that they have succeeded in tilting the decision-making pendulum to the east,” agrees Stefano Braghiroli of the Johan Skytte Institute at the University of Tartu.
A difficult start
Enlargement, especially to the post-communist countries, divided the European Union at the time. Günter Verheugen, the European Commission’s enlargement commissioner in 1999–2004, recalls that the French political elite was against EU enlargement. One of the main reasons was the fear that Germany would gain more influence in the EU.
“The French feared that enlargement to Eastern Europe, which was seen as Germany’s political and economic sphere of influence, would increase Berlin’s influence in the EU as a whole,” Verheugen says in a documentary by the European public broadcaster ARTE.
At the time, there were fears in Western and Central Europe that the new countries from the post-communist bloc would increase crime, corruption, and immigration to the old EU countries, which would take jobs. In France, a poll in 2000 showed that 83 percent of French people feared job losses due to the influx of cheap labour from Eastern Europe.
“French politicians around then-President Jacques Chirac had doubts that some Eastern European countries shared the same fundamental values as Western Europe,” says Shahin Vallée, a senior researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
Culture, identity, and even language were seen as issues, as a large number of Western Europeans and their politicians believed that Europe ended at the Vistula River. The Baltic states, Poland had to prove that they were indeed ready to be EU members.
Another set of fears was linked to possible reactions from Russia. As Verheugen recalls in the documentary, the EU then had to rebalance its relations with Moscow, since the two were to become direct neighbours. At the time, there were particular fears about the Kaliningrad region, which would become an exclave surrounded by EU countries. In reality, however, there was not that much resistance from Moscow that European leaders had feared.
“Putin understood, and I talked to him, that it was in his interest to avoid political chaos on the western border, and that it was better to have stable, reliable neighbours on the border, with whom cooperation and trade were possible,” the former EU commissioner recalls the EU talks with Vladimir Putin, then in his first presidential term.
EU accession marked a major change for all the 10 new member states, eager to end their post-communist impoverishment and establish their “Europeanness”.
“After 50 years of injustice and unnatural exclusion, these countries came home, it wasn’t unnatural,” says Braghiroli of Tartu University.
Baltic star hour
Since the great enlargement of 2004, the EU has experienced a number of challenges: economic downturns, migration crises, the Covid-19 pandemic, and Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Still, the Baltic economies have grown significantly, their politics, as analysts point out, have become more stable, and legislation has become more similar to the rest of the EU. When major crises occurred, the EU’s common structure and support made them easier to deal with.
The Baltic countries have been visible, especially on foreign policy and defence issues, but not always heard. The Eastern Partnership policy has become one of their calling cards. The policy aims to strengthen the political association and economic integration of six Eastern European and Southern Caucasus partner countries.
“Without the Baltic states and Poland in the EU, I don’t think the Community’s enlargement would be possible and effective, especially when it comes to granting EU candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova, or Georgia,” stresses Braghiroli.
Moreover, unlike Poland or Hungary, the Baltic states have never posed challenges for Brussels.
“The Baltic countries understand the rules of the game – for example, the management of the migrant crisis both in the Baltics and across Europe has received some criticism. But there is a big difference between the Baltic and Visegrad countries that have said they will not accept migrants. The Baltic countries have said that they do not like it, but they will abide by the rules if they have to. This gives them more credibility in the eyes of their partners,” underlines Braghiroli.
But the real stellar hour for the Baltics came in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022. All analysts point out that this was the turning point when the Baltic countries, which might not have always been heard or seen up to that point, came into the spotlight with their strong positions on Russia and calls for unconditional support for Ukraine.
The Baltic visibility was not limited to meeting rooms in Brussels – Baltic leaders were quoted by international media. Their hawkish statements about Russia, previously seen as a nuisance, have become mainstream after 2022.
“When the war broke out, Berlin and Paris didn’t know what to do, they didn’t have a plan, while the Baltic countries and Poland had a plan, they knew what to do,” stresses Braghiroli.
Lithuania and its neighbours were also the hawks of the EU’s sanctions policy, pressing for new packages against Russia and Belarus, as well as various forms of support for Ukraine. Estonia has proposed an initiative to transfer artillery ammunition to Ukraine, Latvia has signed a long-term security agreement, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky never fails to mention Lithuania’s support from the early days of the war.
However, that does not mean that eastern members now call the shots within the EU, cautions Ozoliņa of the University of Latvia. “The EU’s policy structure is indeed very diverse and broad. If we look at the overall picture of the EU, I would not say that the pendulum of power has swung to the Baltics. It is still between France and Germany,” she says.
“Let’s be realistic, in spite of our own perception, we are three small countries. It is not a weakness, it can sometimes even be a privilege to be small among the small, because most EU member states are small countries,” she adds.
What next?
The war in Ukraine will one day end and stop being one of the most pressing issues for the EU. Will the Baltics then lose the niche they’ve carved out for themselves where they could be heard and seen?
According to Braghiroli, each country needs to build up competencies in some specific area where it could lead the rest of the EU. Estonia, for example, has made great strides in e-voting and digital security.
Ozoliņa warns, however, that such attempts to discover one’s narrow niche are not always successful.
“Sometimes we tend to invent something specific […] and then we are surprised that nobody understands us on the EU level. But why somebody has to actually take seriously 3, 2 or 1.6 million people’s views?” she says.
Still, the Baltics are gaining more experience in getting others to hear what they think.
“We are getting smarter, we have gained more experience in negotiations, and in a couple of years, we will be much more visible. Later on, we may be part of the ‘big political game’, we just need to have confidence in our experience and knowledge,” says Ozoliņa.
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