A Russian attack on NATO countries in the near future is “practically impossible” in terms of its capabilities, says the Lithuanian Chief of Defence Valdemaras Rupšys, although the alliance should still prepare to deter any aggression.
“Taking into account the current situation of the Russian army’s capabilities [...] this year, next year, the possibility or the probability of a war between Russia and NATO is very low, extremely low, because it is practically impossible for them to have the capability to threaten or start a war with the NATO bloc,” Rupšys told the Žinių Radijas radio on Thursday.
However, “conditions can change”, he added, especially in view of the possible escalation of conflicts in Europe and other parts of the world.
“The situation we see in the Middle East, namely Israel’s war, the Israeli operation, it is not escalating into a wider war. But when wars start, sometimes you cannot predict how things might turn out,” Rupšys said.
“Therefore, those who say that we need to hurry up, be pragmatic, concentrate on making the right decisions and preparing for a future conflict, and above all deter it with our combat power, are right,” the Lithuanian chief of defence argued.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis and some other politicians have recently called for preparing for a scenario in which Russia, if unchecked in Ukraine, will continue its fight against NATO countries.
Rupšys listed the priorities recommended by the military: developing a military brigade “from light to medium”, and equipping it with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, thus enabling a mobile counter-attack defence.
The National Defence Council agreed this week to buy German Leopard 2 tanks for the military division that is being created in the Lithuanian armed forces.
According to Rupšys, it is also necessary to equip the military with short- and medium-range air defence systems, “which is being done”.
However, he admitted, there is “some confusion” in that politicians and the military seem to hold diverging views about the imminence of the Russian threat and how Lithuania should strengthen its forces.
“It is interesting when we have to discuss military advice with those who are not really qualified to give military advice, there is some confusion. And I’m afraid that the public amid all this is a bit scared rather than confused,” Rupšys said.
“It’s no secret that the Russian forces in the western part of Russia are completely embroiled in the war in Ukraine, redeployed, need time to rebuild and so on. We say this based on facts and military assessment. Someone else talks politically, which is quite justified, justified politically. And when you add this together, it is a bit of a mess. It would be good for everyone to do their job in the whole decision-making process,” he stressed.
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