As winter approached, Lithuania started preparing for a new wave of refugees from Ukraine. However, these predictions did not materialise.
A total of around 74,300 Ukrainians have arrived in Lithuania since the start of Russia’s invasion. Now, around 300 new refugees arrive every week.
The flow of refugees from Ukraine peaked in March last year when an average of 2,000 people arrived in Lithuania every day. This number dropped to around 500 in April and has continued to decline.
Before winter, Lithuania was preparing for more tense scenarios in response to the humanitarian crisis caused by Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
“We were ready for a bigger wave, as it was predicted that a cold winter was coming and that Russian actions would intensify,” Deputy Interior Minister Arnoldas Abramavičius told BNS.
“Plans were made to take in a larger number of refugees. Places were set up in unused schools and other public buildings. However, the winter is mild, it’s coming to an end, and if there are no drastic events, we hope that a bigger wave won’t come,” he added.
Organisations supporting Ukrainians say they predicted that the flow of refugees would not increase because people have learnt to live under war conditions.
“We predicted that there would be no new wave, but the Social Security and Labour Ministry did not listen. They spent a dozen or a few dozen million of taxpayers’ money, installing sanitary facilities and showers in unused schools, which no one will need,” said Edmundas Jakilaitis, head of the NGO Strong Together.
According to Social Security and Labour Minister Monika Navickienė, Lithuania could accommodate up to 5,000 war refugees in the premises prepared by municipalities.
Although a new wave of refugees has been avoided, neither winter nor hostilities are over, she noted.
“We cannot know what would happen if those people moved. It’s better to be prepared than not to be prepared in case it happens,” the minister told BNS.
No precise figures
The Interior Ministry estimates that there may be around 60,000 Ukrainian refugees in Lithuania at the moment.
“Today, we cannot give an exact number, but we estimate that there are up to 60,000 [Ukrainians in Lithuania] – that is the number of temporary residence permits issued,” Abramavičius said.
“Although 75,000 Ukrainians are registered for temporary protection, some of them have left, and some have returned to Ukraine. We will have more precise figures in March,” the deputy minister added.
On March 4, 2022, the European Union activated the Temporary Protection Directive for Ukrainians fleeing the war.
According to the document, temporary protection is granted for one year and can be renewed for another year. It entitles refugees to social protection, medical assistance, access to employment, and other guarantees.
“For several months now, the Migration Department has been registering renewals digitally. Almost 27,000 people have already used this option, and about 10,000 more are registered,” Abramavičius said.
Out of the Ukrainian refugees, who arrived in Lithuania, almost 26,000 were minors, and almost 45,000 were aged between 18 and 64. Almost half of the refugees of working age have found jobs in Lithuania, according to the Interior Ministry.
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