The US and NATO officials believe that Belarus could soon join Russia’s war in Ukraine. But the step could be disastrous for the unmodernised Belarusian army and the country’s dictator Alexander Lukashenko, says Maksimas Milta, an analyst at the Eastern European Study Centre (EESC).
Since the rigged presidential elections in Belarus in 2020, the subsequent protests, political persecutions, and Western sanctions, the Lukashenko regime’s dependence on Russia has increased significantly.
Nevertheless, Belarus is still a sovereign state, so “the decision on sending the Belarusian troops to Ukraine cannot be taken in Moscow alone”, according to Milta.
In his words, Belarus’ active involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine would be “painful” for Lukashenko.
“[Joining the war] would also be costly to domestic politics. It would be costly primarily because the Belarusian army is much less prepared than the Russian army. The Belarusian army is relatively poorly funded and has not been modernised,” Milta said.
“The Belarusian army would be even less motivated [to fight Ukrainians] than the Russian army, and we would see mass desertions,” he added.
According to Milta, this would expose Lukashenko’s, who likes to rule the country in a militaristic style, vulnerability. Therefore, the current scenario where Russia attacks Ukraine from Belarus but the country’s troops are not actively involved in the war is “the most optimal” for the Belarusian dictator.
“[The current scenario] allows Lukashenko to have more choices, more excuses. He is creating a grey area here too. If he wants to, he can tell the West that he had no choice, that Russia oppressed him, but he did not send in troops,” the EESC analyst said, adding that this excuse would be used if Ukraine won.
If Russia won and Lukashenko had to explain himself to Putin, the Belarusian dictator could also say that he “had given Russia every opportunity, including infrastructural support, cover, and the possibility of securing the northern front”.
“The current scenario is, therefore, the optimal one, and allows Lukashenko to have a second or third excuse,” Milta said.
According to him, Belarusian people “cannot understand why Ukraine is being attacked from Belarus”.
“These nations are very close. The Belarusians, like the Ukrainians, are both Orthodox and Catholic, and the Belarusian and Ukrainian languages are very similar,” the analyst said. “What is happening now has shocked many Belarusians.”
At the end of February, around 800 people were detained in Belarus in one day after they came out to protest against the war in Ukraine, according to Milta.
“The Belarusians do not believe Lukashenko’s excuse that Ukraine planned to attack Belarus first. They are well aware that Belarus’ current involvement in this war is also a direct consequence of the 2020 elections,” he said.
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