The Lithuanian government is on Wednesday debating a declaration on the Belarusian nuclear plant that critics say will leave Vilnius isolated and without support of its neighbours.
Belarus is preparing to launch the Astravyets NPP located some 50 kilometres from Vilnius. Lithuania has long opposed the project, saying it’s built in breach of international safety standards and is also a political tool for the Kremlin to keep a foothold in the Baltic states and its grip on Belarus.
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Rosatom, the Russian state nuclear corporation, is building the plant funded by a loan from the Kremlin. The first reactor is due to launch in July.
Vilnius has passed a law banning electricity imports from unsafe plants, which includes Astravyets NPP, in 2017. Lithuania then tried to reach an agreement with Latvia and Estonia to jointly ban the import of Belarusian electricity once the plant becomes operational. So far, Estonia has signed the political declaration, but Latvia has not.
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The new declaration, to be debated by the Lithuanian government on Wednesday, has changed the wording from “Baltic states’ solidarity not to buy Belarusian electricity” to “Baltic states’ solidarity with Lithuania’s decision not to buy Belarusian electricity”.
This would leave the possibility for Estonia and Latvia to conduct electricity trade with Belarus via Lithuania’s infrastructure, as it is the only country sharing a physical connection with Minsk.
Belarus has previously said that the electricity trade will be moved to the Latvian border once Lithuania halts imports. However, neither Estonia nor Latvia have direct power lines with Belarus, and a under a 2012 deal, Lithuania's infrastructure is used by the Baltic states for electricity trade with third countries.
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Meanwhile, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are due to switch their power grids away from the Moscow-controlled BRELL network, which also includes Belarus, to a European continental system via Poland by 2025.
Lithuanian officials fear that the Kremlin could use the Astravyets nuclear plant to derail the switch – considered a strategic energy independence project by the EU – by saying the common Soviet-era grid is needed to balance the power network to avoid nuclear emergencies.
Meanwhile, Latvia says electricity trade with Belarus is needed until the 2025 switch for technical reasons, which Lithuania opposes.
Foreign Minister Linas Linkevčius has called on the government to oppose the declaration, and said there should be a coordinated Baltic position on the Astravyets facility instead.
“We definitely have certain understanding from the European Commission as well,” said Linkevičius. “We should not step back from these positions and such compromises should be unacceptable.”
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The compromise could also allow Belarusian electricity to enter Lithuania via Latvia, and then the common EU market, from which it would reach Lithuania, said the country’s former energy minister Arvydas Sekmokas.
But Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas said the scenario would only become a reality if the declaration with Latvia and Estonia is rejected.
The declaration will ensure that “Lithuania has an instrument to make sure Belarusian electricity doesn’t reach its territory”, according to Vaičiūnas.
“The goal is to have not only political declarations, [but] a working mechanism that would allow to control the flows [of electricity],” he said.
“The essence of the deal is that when the Astravyets NPP is launched, all power lines connecting Lithuania and Belarus will be eliminated,” said Vaičiūnas.
The initial goal was ban Belarusian electricity from the grids of all the three Baltic states, but that option was not acceptable for Latvia, according to Vaičiūnas.
Therefore, Lithuania should be prepared for the worst-case scenario if there is no agreement with Latvia and Estonia, he said.
A 'capitulation' for Lithuania
But critics say the new declaration theoretically allows Belarusian electricity to enter Latvia, which would then flow into Lithuania.
“This would mean a capitulation for Lithuania,” said Vytautas Landsbergis, Lithuania’s first post-independence leader. He is also the founder of the country’s anti-Astavyets movement made up of politicians and various public figures.
"Naturally, we are in the same synchronisation zone [with Belarus], so physical flows [between Belarus and the Baltic states] will take place until 2025,” said Vaičiūnas.
“But the essence of this agreement is to eliminate the lines connecting Lithuania and Belarus after the launch of the Astravyets NPP,” he added.
There are three main stages in the agreement, which include establishing identifiers to prevent Belarusian electricity from entering Lithuania.
Energy grid operators will have to establish a certification procedure, according to Vaičiūnas.
However, critics, including concervative MP Audronius Ažubalis, say it is technically impossible to impose the certification process.
The decision now depends on the government, Vaičiūnas said, adding that he is open to other proposals.
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