Nearly four in ten people in Lithuania say they feel less safe because of weather balloons carrying contraband from Belarus, according to a Vilmorus poll commissioned by BNS. Meanwhile, over half said they did not feel any less safe.
The survey was conducted November 6–16, after Lithuania temporarily closed its border with Belarus and at a time when balloon incursions had decreased. Despite the drop, balloons disrupted operations at Vilnius Airport on November 8 and 11.
The findings do not reflect public reaction to the government’s later decision to reopen the border or the most recent airport shutdowns on November 20 and November 23–24.
According to the poll, 38.5% of respondents said the balloons pose a greater threat to their personal safety. Another 55% said they feel as usual, while 6.5% had no opinion.
Students, professionals, civil servants, higher-income respondents, and residents of Vilnius and other major cities were more likely to report feeling less safe. Those who said they felt as usual were more often unemployed people, pensioners, manual workers, lower-income respondents, and residents of smaller towns and rural areas.
Voters for the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party, Nemunas Dawn, the Democrats “For Lithuania”, and the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union were more likely to say they did not feel threatened. The most concerned were supporters of the Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats and the Liberal Movement, with 63.5% and 54.7%, respectively, reporting a greater sense of threat.
Lithuania closed its border with Belarus for about three weeks because of the balloon incursions, which officials describe as a hybrid attack by the Belarusian government.
Citing an improved situation, the government reopened the Medininkai–Kamenny Log and Šalčininkai–Benyakoni checkpoints 10 days earlier than planned, and operations resumed at midnight Thursday.
In response to Lithuania’s closure, Belarus barred Lithuanian trucks stranded on its territory from returning until the border reopened. Even after the reopening, Minsk has continued to block the trucks from leaving, asking for talks between the two countries’ foreign ministries.
Tadas Vasiliauskas, a spokesperson for Lithuanian Airports, told BNS that balloon-related shutdowns at the Vilnius and Kaunas airports in October and November affected travel plans for 36,000 passengers and caused 249 flights to be cancelled or diverted.
Vilmorus surveyed 1,000 people. The results carry a margin of error of up to 3.1 percentage points.
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