After several years of rapid wage growth driven largely by high inflation and the pandemic, salary increases in Lithuania are expected to slow markedly next year. Labour market analysts say that while wages previously rose by double digits annually, employers now plan increases of just 5% to 8%, with slightly faster growth projected in the public sector.
Many workers say even modest raises would help. Irotė, a pensioner who works as a cashier to supplement her income, said she hopes for an increase next year. “If I’m still working, maybe I’ll see it. If not, I won’t,” she told LRT TV.
Employers confirm the slowdown. Dainius Dundulis, head of the Norfa retail chain, said wage growth will be far more moderate. “The maximum next year is likely 5%. More than that is unlikely, and even 5% would be good,” he said.
Telecommunications companies are also easing wage growth despite continued competition for talent. “External crises and market pressure pushed wages up. We compete not only with direct rivals but with many white-collar sectors,” said Jaunius Špakauskas of Bitė Lietuva.
Analysts say the surge has already tapered off. Povilas Blusius of Figure Baltic Advisory estimates wage growth at 7.5% to 8% this year. The Bank of Lithuania projects roughly 8% growth this year, nearly 9% in 2025, and about 7% in 2027.
Experts cite slowing industry, rising raw material costs, and supply chain disruptions as key factors. Wage hikes were strongest in 2022, when inflation hit 20%.
The government’s decision to raise the minimum wage by 115 euros to 846 euros net next year pushed employers’ plans slightly higher, particularly in the public sector. But analysts warn that raising wages too quickly could drive companies to relocate operations abroad.
Supplemental benefits such as health insurance remain popular, but surveys show salary size remains workers’ top priority.
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