Russia's full-scale invasion has reshaped almost every aspect of everyday life for Ukrainians. Whom people trust has also changed.
In the public sphere, the old, familiar faces of the entertainment world have been replaced by new ones: charismatic military commanders, volunteers capable of raising millions to support the army, prominent veterans, and medics. Even the country's president, who had lost a lion’s share of popularity before the invasion, has radically transformed his image under wartime conditions and regained public support.
At the end of August, the sociological agency Rating published its latest survey on the political attitudes of Ukrainians. The results are clear: public loyalty to former Armed Forces Commander Gen. Valery Zaluzhnyi is steadily growing, with 74% of respondents expressing trust in him, compared to 68% for President Volodymyr Zelensky.
It’s worth noting that from the onset of the invasion until the summer of 2024, there were virtually no publicly available polls showing the dynamics of public sentiment. Now, both Rating and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology report that the Ukrainian society wants political change, even as it accepts that elections can’t be held during the war.
Presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine were held more than six years ago, while municipal elections were five years ago. Since independence in 1991, the country has had six presidents, but only Leonid Kuchma was successfully re-elected for a second term. Nevertheless, media reports suggest Zelensky's team is quietly preparing for a future electoral campaign.
There is little doubt that as soon as the elections take place, a new political community – war veterans – will emerge strongly. Neither in 2014 nor in 2019 did they manage to form a cohesive political force, and their rhetoric was mostly adopted by former President Petro Poroshenko.
Today, however, the situation is different. There are already over 1.2 million veterans in the country. Wartime experience has become a shared reference point for the whole of society. Therefore, the political agency of veterans is only a matter of time. According to Rating, if Gen. Zaluzhnyi were to establish a political party, 24% of voters would support it. 6% more would vote for a hypothetical party led by Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of Military Intelligence.
In recent days, discussions in Kyiv have suggested that Gen. Zaluzhnyi, who currently serves as Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, may be assembling his election campaign team. Historically, this is not surprising: at the end of a war, former commanders often enter politics. One need only recall Eisenhower or de Gaulle. The greatest challenge lies elsewhere: could the expectations of veterans become a tool for manipulation, harmful to Ukraine's future?
Consider this example. Walking down Khreshchatyk, Kyiv’s main street, one cannot miss posters of Ihor Shevchenko, who presents himself as the Ukrainian Lee Kuan Yew. His election agenda is concise yet radical: reinstate the death penalty, halt EU accession, and begin developing nuclear weapons.
Admittedly, Shevchenko is not currently considered a serious candidate in any polls. But his ideas won’t simply disappear. They are already echoed in the Verkhovna Rada – the Ukrainian parliament – by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Therefore, the risk is clear: after the war, Ukraine’s political pendulum could swing sharply in unpredictable directions.
That is why, in negotiations with Kyiv today, it is vital to establish irreversible Euro-Atlantic integration mechanisms. Only they can shield the country from the most unpredictable consequences of post-war politics.
Maksimas Milta is a Belarusian-Lithuanian political scientist and commentator. He is currently based in Kyiv, Ukraine, where he is a country director at the Reckoning Project. This commentary was originally broadcast on LRT RADIO.
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