A Russian Gerbera drone crashed a kilometre inside Lithuania’s territory after entering from Belarus. Here’s what we know so far.
After initial confusion about a supposed Russian strike drone entering Lithuanian airspace, a flurry of conflicting reports followed, describing the object as a UAV, a model aircraft, a homemade drone, or simply an unidentified flying object.
By Thursday evening, Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė confirmed it was, in fact, a Russian Gerbera drone.
Such drones were first spotted over Ukraine last year. Since then, Ukrainian forces have identified it as a decoy that mimics Shahed-type strike drones. Its main purpose is to confuse and exhaust air defence systems.
"Beyond simply striking targets, the Gerbera will also include reconnaissance features and be used to divert our air defence systems," Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, one of Ukraine’s leading drone and electronic warfare experts, wrote in July last year.
According to Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR), Gerbera drones are roughly ten times cheaper than Shahed attack drones, thanks to their basic construction of plywood and polystyrene.
These characteristics were also cited by Lithuanian authorities and the military when announcing that the downed object resembled a makeshift UAV.
Are Gerbera drones dangerous?
Yes – according to Ukrainian sources, some Gerbera models can carry explosives.
Back in November, Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed that Gerberas could also be used as "kamikaze drones," with an explosive payload of between three and five kilograms, according to Beskrestnov.
By comparison, newer models of the Shahed drone carry up to 90 kilograms of explosives, the Ukrainian president’s office reported in January.
How and why did the drone enter Lithuanian airspace?
It remains unclear.
According to representatives of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, drones of this type can also be used during military exercises as aerial targets.
"It could be reconnaissance [...] it could be a test of the country’s response procedures – how the state reacts to an aircraft entering its airspace. Or it could have simply been a target that went off-course during a live-fire exercise,” Lithuanian Armed Forces representative Gintautas Ciunis told reporters on Thursday.
Authorities say all possible scenarios are being investigated.
Meanwhile, several international media outlets have reported that Lithuania failed to react in time or identify the object as a Russian-operated Gerbera drone.
The incident also drew criticism from Arūnas Kumpis, a Lithuanian volunteer and drone expert fighting in Ukraine.
“No one could determine whether it posed a threat or not. You can’t tell what’s inside just by looking at it. It could just as well have contained a combat payload,” Kumpis told LRT RADIJAS on Thursday evening.
His concerns were previously echoed by Oleksandra Molloy, a researcher at the University of New South Wales in Australia who has studied the evolution of Russian drones.
She told public broadcaster ABC that it is extremely difficult to determine whether such drones are armed, which is why Ukrainian air defences are still forced to shoot them down – even when they are just decoys.
Minister Šakalienė also commented that responses to such incidents differ depending on whether a country is at peace or at war.
“We must distinguish between an incident and a serious threat—an invasion. The response is one thing if it’s a random or provocative intrusion into your airspace, and quite another if it’s an act of aggression,” she told LRT RADIJAS on Thursday..
Have there been other such incidents?
A Shahed-type combat drone crashed in a field in Latvia last September. No casualties were reported.
At the time, NATO and Latvian forces faced criticism for allegedly failing to respond promptly to what was described as a potentially dangerous airspace violation.
Minister Šakalienė stated on Thursday that response protocols have since been revised.
“This time, we were able to immediately change the NATO air policing response level, and that’s a significant shift,” she said.
Ultimately, fighter jets were not scrambled in response to the Lithuanian incident – the drone simply crashed.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian drones – and even missiles – have entered or crashed in the territories of Ukraine’s neighbours, including Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Belarus.
In December, Euronews reported that Ukrainian forces are able to redirect some of the Russian-launched drones back into Russian or to Belarusian territory.
Minsk does not publish data on such incidents. However, dozens of drones end up in Belarusian airspace every month, according to Hajun, an independent Belarusian monitoring group that tracks military activity.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also noted that Belarusian forces have been forced to scramble jets to shoot down such drones. Meanwhile, citizens who publicly report drone crashes or shoot-downs in Belarus face state repression, according to Hajun.
What should Lithuania do?
According to Anatoliy Khrapchynsky, a former officer in Ukraine’s Air Force, the most effective way to counter such drones is to disrupt them electronically.
“We actively use electronic warfare systems, which can reduce the accuracy of such drones,” he told LRT RADIJAS on Friday, adding that around half the drones launched against Ukraine nightly are decoys.
“I believe the Baltic states should join forces to create a unified and powerful electromagnetic field that can interfere with satellite navigation systems,” he said.
“In addition, mobile strike teams should be formed to use firearms and drone interceptors,” Khrapchynsky added, stressing the importance of bolstering intelligence capabilities.
“Learn from Ukraine’s mistakes,” he said.
LRT RADIJAS journalist Daumantas Butkus contributed to the article.
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