Russia is not only allocating massive resources for the war in Ukraine but is also preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO, according to Lithuanian intelligence.
“Russia is allocating enormous resources to the war in Ukraine and shows no inclination to de-escalate the situation, even though it is failing to achieve its operational objectives. At the same time, Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO,” the State Security Department and the Second Investigation Department under the Defence Ministry said in their annual national security threat assessment report published on Thursday.
The agencies say that the Kremlin has embarked on a major reform of its Armed Forces that will expand Russia’s military potential in the Baltic Sea region. Changes in structure and subordination have already started, including in the Kaliningrad region and Western Russia.
“Restructuring is a long-term project that will require effort and resources from several years to a decade,” they said, adding that the overall speed and scope of the reform will depend directly on the duration and outcome of the war in Ukraine.
The agencies also note that Russia has sufficient financial, human, material, and technical resources to continue the war “at a similar intensity in at least the short term”. In the intelligence assessment, this means a period of up to two years.
The report says that the war has cost Russia more than expected. Military spending in the first half of 2023 exceeded the amount officially budgeted for the whole year. This year, military allocations will make up at least a third of Russia’s state budget – more than 10 trillion roubles, or 102 billion euros.
“The actual amount is certainly much higher, as it is supplemented by classified budget allocations. The war and the military industry are now driving the Russian economy, accumulating financial, material, and human resources at the expense of the other sectors of the economy,” it says.
According to the document, Russia is dividing its Western Military District into the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, which were merged in 2010, forming a new army corps is Karelia, and upgrading some brigades to divisions.
The agencies also note that Belarus is developing a capability to deploy nuclear weapons that will be controlled by Russians. Work is underway in Belarus to upgrade and equip the infrastructure for the storage of nuclear weapons, according to the report.
“The Belarusian Armed Forces have two potential nuclear delivery means – Su-25 attack aircraft based at the Lida airbase near the Lithuanian border and mobile Iskander-M missile systems at Asipovichy. Belarusian military personnel are being trained to operate with non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW),” the agencies said.
“The deployment of NSNW in Belarus will only deepen the ties between the two countries and encourage Moscow to maintain control over Minsk at all costs,” they added.
According to the report, Belarus last year acquired a significant amount of modern combat equipment from Russia: the Iskander operational-tactical missile complex, a battalion set of BTR-82A armoured personnel carriers, S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, and Mi-35M attack helicopters.
China’s intelligence activity
Last year saw an increase in Chinese intelligence activity against Lithuania, with the main focus being on its internal affairs and upcoming elections, according to the report.
“China intensifies intelligence activities against Lithuania from its territory. Its intelligence services increasingly use social networks to establish and maintain contact with potential targets as well as cyber espionage against Lithuania,” it said.
The agencies note that Chinese intelligence services’ requirements for information related to Lithuania have changed in recent years.
“Previously, China was mostly interested in information about the ‘five poisons’ (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, and Falun Gong) as well as Lithuania’s role in the EU and NATO. Currently, Chinese intelligence priorities have shifted towards Lithuania’s internal affairs, political divisions, and foreign policy,” they said.
“In the short term, Chinese intelligence services likely will seek to collect information on Lithuanian national elections, both presidential and parliamentary, as well as the European Parliament election.”
According to the report, similarly to other Western countries, one of the most common methods used by Chinese intelligence services to establish and maintain contact with potential targets is via social networks.
Chinese intelligence uses social media “to identify persons of interest who fit their target”.
“These individuals may have direct access to sensitive information or a wide network of contacts, including officials, politicians, journalists, businesspeople, and scientists who can be used as intermediaries in intelligence operations,” the agencies said.
“Chinese intelligence officers usually use the cover of representatives of various companies or think tanks when approaching targets, offering financial incentives for information. Targets are typically invited to travel to China where they receive their payment and new intelligence assignment,” they added.
According to the report, Chinese intelligence actively uses the LinkedIn platform for targeting, “as its users publicly disclose a significant amount of personal information”.
The agencies also note that Chinese intelligence “is likely to approach Lithuanian citizens during their visits to third countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, where there is no strict counter-intelligence regime, thus creating favourable conditions for Chinese intelligence to operate”.
China’s intelligence services also use Chinese scientists working abroad for espionage, according to the report.
“Due to the obligation to cooperate with Chinese intelligence, Chinese scientists and students working or interning abroad become potential targets,” the Lithuanian agencies said.
“China is expanding its cyber-intelligence capabilities against Lithuania. Cyber espionage groups associated with China regularly scan the networks of Lithuanian state institutions for breaches and seek to infiltrate their networks to intercept information and data,” they stressed.
Lithuania’s intelligence agencies publish their national security threat assessment reports every year. The latest document looks into key threats and risk factors to Lithuania’s national security in 2024-2025.
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