European Union leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day meeting to finalise further support for Ukraine. In the corridors of Brussels, diplomats and officials feel that what’s at stake here is both the vital financial and moral support for Kyiv and the very unity of the EU.
At the last European Council meeting of this year, EU leaders will decide whether to approve a 50 billion-euro financial support fund for Ukraine over the next four years. Kyiv needs the money to keep the country functioning: to pay pensions, maintain schools, run hospitals, and repair roads.
The second decision concerns EU enlargement. Leaders will decide whether to allow Ukraine to start EU accession negotiations later this year. Moldova, which wants to join the community, is also awaiting a positive decision, while Georgia hopes to be granted candidate status.
“The decisions taken this week will be the most important and will determine the future of the EU,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. Both senior EU officials and national leaderships admit that the EU cannot find consensus on any issue and that everything will be decided at the eleventh hour, at the negotiating table in Brussels. At this table, countries will try to persuade essentially their only opponent, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“The biggest question is how serious Hungary is about going all the way with its position, whether it is a serious threat or just a bluff. Or maybe a combination of both?” said Marija Martišiūtė, an analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre.
It is therefore possible that the summit will extend into the weekend.
Many in Europe are calling this European Council summit historical, because if Ukraine is not allowed to start formal negotiations, not will Moldova, and Georgia is unlikely to be granted candidate status.
“These decisions are about the future of Europe, not just about Ukraine’s membership of NATO or the EU. These are decisions that will determine what kind of Europe we will all live in and whether it will be a secure Europe. The stakes are high. Therefore, I hope that we will find diplomatic ways to prevent Orbán from blocking the whole of the European Council, because the moment of EU enlargement is important for the future of all of us,” Jamie Shea, a former NATO official, professor and expert at Friends of Europe, a political analysis centre in Brussels, told LRT.lt.
Multi-billion-euro blackmail
Both measures require unanimous consent – so all EU countries must agree on both the 50-billion-euro fund for Ukraine and the opening of accession negotiations. However, while the Community is being held hostage by Hungary on the negotiations, the EU has other tools at its disposal to get the money for Ukraine.
Behind the scenes in Brussels, there is talk that Budapest may be willing to make concessions on money for Ukraine in exchange for the European Commission transferring billions that have been frozen for several years. The EC has withheld the money from Budapest for various issues with the rule of law, failure to guarantee the independence of the judiciary, etc.
While both the European Parliament and most capitals have urged the EC to take a principled approach and not to be blackmailed by Budapest, the Commission announced on Wednesday evening that it was releasing part of the money, around 10 out of some 30 billion euros. The Commission justified the decision by saying Budapest had implemented reforms for the independence of the judiciary, but the move was still criticised as pandering to Hungary.
Martišiūtė, an analyst working in Brussels, believes that this can be seen as picking a lesser evil.
“In principle, I completely agree that the EU should not be blackmailed by Hungary. [...] But if Orbán sticks to his position to the end, this is a decisive moment and the EU may have to move to a compromise position. One of them is to agree to review how Hungary has progressed on certain reforms and if indeed some of the reforms have been implemented, some progress has been made, perhaps some of the money can be freed.
“Of course, it is inevitable that the media will immediately say the EU has succumbed to blackmail. But the EU has also recently freed up some money for Poland, so if Hungary is indeed pursuing reforms, the Commission must take this into account,” she told LRT.lt.
However, some capitals see this as a surrender and speak of a serious threat to the reputation of EC President Ursula von der Leyen and her ambitions to be re-elected for a second term.
“Imagine a scenario where the EC frees up money for Hungary and Orbán still blocks all decisions, including money for Ukraine. That would be a complete disaster for von der Leyen and a complete fiasco for Europe,” said one official who did not want to be named.
If Orbán does not back down, countries have alternatives to maintain at least financial support for Ukraine.
“A coalition of the willing can be formed. Say, 26 countries could step in and commit money to the fund without Hungary, thus bypassing Hungary’s veto. But this would send a message of division in the EU,” said Martišiūtė.
According to LRT’s sources, the capitals are seriously considering such a plan B, but all possible efforts will be made to avoid it. In any case, the EU is trying to resolve at least the issue of financial support, so as not to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the community is split.
However, Martišiūtė argues that in such a tense situation, with vital support for Ukraine hanging in the balance, this could be a good alternative: “I think we should not be obsessed with the idea of unity if we see that one member of the EU family is threatening it all.”
Historic opportunity or fiasco
Even if Orbán can make concessions on financial support in exchange for money for his own country, agreeing to allow Ukraine to start EU accession negotiations is his red line. However, he is not opposed to Moldova starting accession talks and Georgia getting candidate status.
“This only proves that he is principled against Ukraine in particular and his stubbornness could easily sacrifice the interests of Moldova and Georgia,” said one diplomat.
According to him, some countries will certainly not accept green-lighting solutions only for Moldova and Georgia, leaving Ukraine with nothing.
The decisions of this Council are therefore truly fundamental: either the Hungarians will be won over and the EU will take historic steps towards enlargement, or the community will miss the chance and all the potential joiners will remain outside the EU indefinitely.
Orbán explains his position by saying that the EU is not ready to accept Ukraine and instead asks for a strategic discussion on the effectiveness of the EU’s support for Ukraine and only next year, in March, taking up the question of opening formal negotiations.
However, Hungary is well aware that it is the decision of this Council that is of the utmost moral importance for Ukraine, because all the parties are aware that the accession process itself, even if the opening of the negotiations is blessed, will be very long, difficult and viscous, with Ukraine needing to implement a series of reforms in 35 areas, and with all the parties having to bless the progress made by Ukraine once again.
In Brussels, there is talk that Orbán’s desire to block Ukraine’s membership issue at this particular summit may be linked to collusion with the Kremlin. Russian President Putin, who has announced his candidacy for re-election, is keen to maintain the widest possible support among his compatriots and show how divided the EU is.
The ‘nuclear’ option
If this week’s European Council fails to reach agreements on any of the issues, it is possible that the 26 EU countries will consider triggering the so-called Article 7 procedure against Hungary. This means that countries can suspend Hungary’s right to vote in the EU if it is found to be in repeated breach of EU values.
This is not the first time such a measure has been discussed for Hungary, but it has not been taken, partly because Poland had consistently shielded Hungary.
Martišiūtė agrees that such a scenario is possible, but it would be, as she puts it, “nuclear”: “Nobody wants that to happen, but I think the EU should not rule it out, if it is really necessary.”
Shea, the expert at Friends of Europe, says he is not a “catastrophist” and believes that, if not this time, the EU will be able to reach an agreement on the Ukraine talks starting in March.
“Let’s hope for a productive negotiation in this European Council, because I believe there is no alternative to EU enlargement. If we leave these countries, only Mr Putin will benefit, not us. The instability in that grey area with the absence of the rule of law, corruption, etc, the insecurity, the hybrid warfare, will eventually penetrate into the European Union itself.
“So we have a situation where we are either going forward or we are going backwards. Therefore, perhaps there will be a few more chaotic summits, perhaps a few too many long night meetings of the heads of state. But it is very important that in the end the majority opinion prevails in this case,” said Shea.
Weariness
It is not the first time that Hungary is presenting a major problem for the EU to take important decisions. It was Budapest that was the most resistant last year when the community was considering an embargo on Russian oil, and this year the country has been vetoing a 500-million-euro military aid package since spring. But Hungary is not the only obstacle. Many diplomats are already saying loudly that the West, and therefore the EU, is tired of war.
Shea, who has also worked for NATO for many years, told LRT.lt that aid is clearly faltering.
“First, the EU has problems with the so-called European Peace Facility. Both the promise to buy and provide Ukraine with 155 mm artillery shells [the EU had promised to provide one million of these shells by March next year – LRT.lt] and the possibility of reimbursing the costs incurred for sending weapons to Ukraine. So we have to admit that this is not the best moment for Ukraine in terms of financial and political support,” he said.
However, he suggests taking a broader view and not forgetting bilateral support not only from the EU but also from NATO countries: “The Dutch have already pledged 2.5 billion euros, Germany has said it will double it next year to 8 billion. The UK has signed an arms consortium with Norway. So things are happening and we need to look at the bigger picture – Ukraine is still getting both money and arms.”
“Now EU leaders need to step forward and convince their societies that this is not just charity for Ukraine. This is a fundamental decision for the security of the whole of Europe,” said Shea.
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