Can longer parental leaves and more generous benefits convince Lithuanians to have more babies? Commentators are sceptical.
Last year, Lithuania reported the lowest number of births since 1990. This is despite the earlier predictions that lockdowns during the Covid pandemic might actually boost fertility rates. They did not and last year saw around 22,100 births in the country, down by 1,300 from 2021.
Although fertility in Lithuania has been declining steadily, a brief baby boom was recorded in 2009, a couple of years after the government raised parenting benefits and extended parental leave. However, the increases were later reversed and fertility went down again.
To ensure generational change, the total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman has during her child-bearing age, should be at least 2.1.
The last time Lithuania had an indicator anywhere near that level was in 1990, after which it declined year after year and reached its lowest point in 2002.
The situation has stabilised somewhat since then, and since 2008 the total fertility rate has been slowly growing for almost a decade. In recent years, however, the indicator has fallen back to levels similar to 2002. In 2021, Lithuania’s total fertility rate was 1.36.
Social Security and Labour Minister Monika Navickienė says the government would increase benefits if it thought it’d have an effect. In reality, she says, financial measures are less of a factor in a family’s decision to have children than good infrastructure to raise them.
“All the studies confirm the same thing, that [the decision to have children] is not made because of benefits,” Navickienė told LRT TV, adding that Lithuania is already one of the most generous EU member states when it comes to maternity payouts.
A more important factor for young families, according to Navickienė, is opportunities to resume their careers following parental leave and balance work and family responsibilities.
Professor Aušra Maslauskaitė of the Department of Sociology at Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas agrees. She argues that although the 2009 fertility spike coincided with the government’s benefits policy, the real reasons behind it were different.
Generational changes in parenting are a more significant factor, according to Maslauskaitė.
“In the Soviet era, we had one pattern of fertility, with early births and small gaps between babies. This changed in the 1990s. Some women of the 1970s generation had their first babies early but then delayed subsequent childbearing. And for this group, the last possible year of childbearing was around 2008 and later,” she told LRT TV.
Family services and infrastructure – such as daycare – are more important considerations when it comes to having children than the duration of parental leave or benefits.
“But there are also many other factors that encourage or positively nudge a family’s decision to have children, such as trust in the government and the state, the quality of public services and their accessibility to families,” she adds.
In the EU, the total fertility rate has been stable in recent years, with the Eurostat reporting a figure of 1.53 for 2021.
Among Lithuania’s neighbours, only Poland is doing worse (1.33). Fertility rates in Estonia and Latvia are above the EU average (1.61 and 1.57 respectively). Malta (1.13) and Spain (1.19) have even lower indicators.
None of the EU countries have achieved replacement rates of above 2.1, with France reporting the highest total fertility rate of 1.84.
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