The march to Moscow by the owner of the Wagner private military company, Yevgeny Prigozhin, ended with a trip to Minsk. The possible relocation of the mercenaries to Lithuania’s neighbourhood could increase the possibility of hybrid threats and sabotage, experts warn.
On Monday, Belarusian opposition channels reported that several military bases will be built in Belarus to accommodate the Wagner mercenaries. In his first comment after the mutiny, Prigozhin said that “Lukashenko has extended his hand and offered solutions for the continuation of Wagner’s activities in a legal jurisdiction”.
Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian Armed Forces and that their presence in the country was “nothing to fear”. According to the experts, the establishment of Wagner in Belarus could increase tensions and the likelihood of hybrid threats in the neighbouring NATO countries – Lithuania, Latvia, or Poland.
“Could they organise sabotage actions? Yes. Would they be successful? No, because Baltic countries are ahead of the game when it comes to Russia and their operations,” said Olga Lautman, Russia analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
“They know Russia, they know Wagner, and they know all the tactics better than the US or Western Europe,” she added.
However, former Belarusian diplomat Pavel Slunkin did not rule out the possibility that Wagner may help organise increased irregular migration flows from Belarus.
“There is concern on this, especially knowing what Lukashenko did with migration flows when he tried to attack the borders of Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland with irregular migrants,” he noted.
“If the Wagner groups are allowed in Belarus and if they are subordinated somehow to Lukashenko or his Ministry of Defence, then, of course, I think we could expect that they could be used in this attack on the border,” Slunkin added.
But the main target in the short term could be the Vilnius NATO Summit, due to take place on July 11-12, the former Belarusian diplomat pointed out.
“The mercenaries could be used in other hybrid or not hybrid activities to provoke the situation near the border while the Vilnius NATO Summit will be taking place,” he said.
However, he is sceptical of Wagner’s potential to move to Belarus because maintaining such a structure could threaten both Putin and Lukashenko.
“I don't think that Prigozhin would simply agree to protect Lukashenko and give up his political career, which has been carefully built up over the years,” Slunkin said.
Security situation unchanged
The alleged arrival of Prigozhin in Belarus does not change the security situation in Lithuania, the country’s defence and foreign ministers have assured.
“A year ago, there were 40,000 Russian troops in Belarus with all their equipment, paratroopers, planes, helicopters, ammunition depots, and all the logistics. I don’t remember such a panic back then. We were monitoring the situation, and then the number of troops dropped considerably,” Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas told reporters on Wednesday.
“The security situation has been tense and complicated since the start of the war, and it remains so. One dab of mud does not change it significantly,” he added.
According to Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, Prigozhin’s arrival in Belarus has no impact on the security situation in Lithuania, but it will definitely change if Wagner’s troops come to the neighbouring country.
“The greatest danger after this weekend comes from the unpredictability factor,” he said. “The arrival of Prigozhin, one person, in Belarus, does not affect our security situation, but the arrival of his army would unequivocally change it.”
President Gitanas Nausėda said after the State Defence Council’s meeting on Sunday that the arrival of Prigozhin in Belarus would mean that the security of NATO’s eastern borders would have to be further strengthened.
There is no information that Wagner mercenaries are relocating to Belarus yet, Landsbergis stressed.
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