Just a few weeks ago, Vladimir Putin praised the non-sharing of nuclear weapons during his meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Now, he is promising to deploy them in Belarus. According to experts, the move is aimed at pressuring the West and the US, but the power of Russia’s scare tactics is waning.
On March 25, Putin announced that Russia will deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to the Russian leader, “there is nothing unusual” because “the United States has been doing this for decades”, as “they have long deployed their tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of their allied countries”.
During the Cold War, Soviet nuclear weapons were deployed in Belarus, so upgrading and preparing the infrastructure to store Russian weapons would be relatively easy and quick.
Putin said that a storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons could be ready by July 1. According to the Kremlin leader, Russia has already deployed ten aircraft capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
“We are probably talking about ten Su-25 [fighter jets]. This is not that many, although this is relative,” Maxim Starchak, Russian nuclear weapons expert, told LRT.lt.
However, it remains unclear whether the tactical nuclear weapons will actually be transferred to Belarus. This confusion might be useful for Putin, as he still has different options depending on how the war in Ukraine proceeds and the confrontation with the West develops, Starchak stressed.
Needed victory
The West has condemned Moscow’s statement, calling it nuclear proliferation. Some have even proposed new sanctions, firstly against Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko if he accepts Russian weapons.
“Russia is showing weakness, not strength. Our response must be strong, not weak. Serious sanctions, troop deployments in the Baltics and more air and sea defence systems on the eastern flank of NATO would send a message of solidarity and determination,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis wrote on Twitter.
But according to experts, Belarus has long been asking for Russian nuclear weapons, and no pressure would make it change its mind. Meanwhile, Putin could turn a greater subjugation of Belarus into the victory he desperately needs as his army struggles in Ukraine.
“What we see is the continuous Russian blunder in Ukraine, which results in tensions inside of Russia and in its neighbourhood. It is only possible to reverse this in Belarus – a client state with extremely weak legitimacy and control,” Pavel Havlíček, an expert at the Czech Association for International Affairs (AMO), told LRT.lt.
Some Russian and Ukrainian analysts believe that Moscow’s determination to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus is a warning to Ukraine not to try and liberate Crimea.
However, they stress that the security of the Baltic states and Poland would not be altered by the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. According to Lithuanian intelligence, there are already Iskander-M short-range missile systems and probably also nuclear devices deployed in Kaliningrad.
“I think there is no need to look for military significance here. Moscow could get the same military effect by placing it all [nuclear weapons] in the Kaliningrad region. Iskanders are already there. [...] But they chose a more difficult path – moving the weapons to the unpredictable Lukashenko,” Starchak said.
According to Putin, Russia will not transfer control of nuclear weapons to Minsk, and the weapons will be managed by the 12th Directorate of the Russian Defence Ministry.
Propaganda tool
News about nuclear weapons is already being used as a propaganda tool by the Belarusian regime. Lukashenko said last week that he was “forced” to accept Russian nuclear weapons because of “unprecedented Western pressure”.
The threat allegedly posed by Lithuania and Poland is constantly being escalated by the Minsk regime. Now, Belarus threatens its neighbours with nuclear weapons. For example, a propagandist Ryhor Azaronak said on Belarusian state television that Belarus has become a “nuclear state” that will strike its enemies.
“Belarus is a nuclear state! A state that can respond with tactical nuclear weapons if attacked on its territory. Warsaw will melt, and Vilnius will drown,” the propagandist fumed.
Belarusian propagandist boasts on state TV that Belarus is now a nuclear state and threatens to annihilate Poland and Lithuania. pic.twitter.com/t6DUZi3XRg
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) March 27, 2023
Propaganda about the transfer of nuclear weapons aims to escalate the situation without taking real escalatory action, analysts say. As Russian military setbacks in Ukraine continue, Moscow hopes to scare the US into forcing Kyiv to negotiate and accept the loss of some of its territory.
“It is likely that Putin would like the United States to respond in a mirror way. For example, talking about moving nuclear weapons to Poland. But the nuclear factor does not appear in this confrontation between Russia and the West. Putin is trying to do something to raise the tension and justify the need to reckon with him, but he is failing,” Russian nuclear weapons expert Starchak said.
Putin, who often plays the nuclear card, is also beginning to lose the power of his scare tactics. For example, Germany has already announced that Russia’s nuclear threats will not stop its support for Ukraine.
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