Some European countries, notably the Baltics and the Scandinavians, may be too reliant on the United States for their security, François Hollande, former president of France, said in an interview for Politico.
The former French leader was commenting on suggestions that the Ukraine war has shifted the balance of power in the EU towards Poland and Eastern European countries that have been more adamant about supporting Kyiv.
Hollande is unconvinced that this is the case, however, arguing that northern and eastern EU members are casting in their lot with the United States at their own risk. “These countries, essentially the Baltics, the Scandinavians, are essentially tied to the United States. They see American protection as a shield.”
This could prove a risk, Hollande says, especially if a more isolationist administration is voted in.
“Until today, [President Joe Biden has shown] exemplary solidarity and lived up to his role in the transatlantic alliance perfectly. But tomorrow, with a different American president and a more isolationist Congress, or at least less keen on spending, will the United States have the same attitude?” Hollande told Politico.
“We must convince our partners that the European Union is about principles and political values. We should not deviate from them, but the partnership can also offer precious, and solid, security guarantees,” he added.
‘Radically rational’
Hollande, who was president of France from 2012-2017, together with then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, participated in the Normandy format talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, organised after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and aggression in Donbas.
However, the talks were not fruitful and revealed that Putin only understands power. “He is a radically rational person, or a rationally radical person, as you like. (...) He’s got his own reasoning and within that framework, he’s ready to use force. He’s only able to understand the [power] dynamic that we’re able to set up against him,” said Hollande.
He predicts that before the anniversary of the invasion, Putin will seek to “consolidate his gains to stabilise the conflict, hoping that public opinion will get tired and that Europeans will fear escalation in order to bring up at that stage the prospect of a negotiation”.
The role of mediator is likely to be played by Turkey or China, which “won’t be reassuring for anyone”.
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