An increasing number of Russians who are opposed to the war in Ukraine will come to Lithuania and other neighbouring countries, as Western sanctions are crippling the Russian economy, Russians who have fled to Vilnius believe.
The Lithuanian Migration Department says it has not yet noticed a significant increase in arrivals of people from Russia and Belarus who are seeking political asylum.
However, Russian citizens say this may soon change as it is getting “difficult to breathe” in their country due to total censorship, as people are being persecuted just for saying the word “war” in public.
The emerging new diaspora is planning to work from Lithuania or other Western countries, hoping to achieve a government change in Russia.
Last straw
Sergei Davidis, a 53-year-old head of the Political Prisoners Support Program at Memorial Human Rights Centre, arrived in Vilnius last week, just after Russian authorities raided the offices of the country’s most prominent human rights organisation.
Memorial’s international office was liquidated by a court decision in late December 2021 after prosecutors accused the centre of “justifying terrorism”. According to Davidis, the charges were brought because the centre defended the rights of various religious communities.
It was only a matter of time before the local Memorial centre and other units would be completely paralysed, Davidis said. But the law enforcement searches were “the last straw” that made the man decide to move to Vilnius.
“Many people are now leaving Russia because they don’t want to take responsibility for the war. It’s extremely difficult to speak out, to influence Putin’s regime,” Davidis told BNS. “Most rights protection or journalistic activity is simply impossible or banned.”
Fleeing persecution
Anna Stepanova, a 60-year-old civic activist, worked with the opposition party Parnas in the past and in 2017, headed Aleksei Navalny’s election headquarters in Nizhny Novgorod, several hundred kilometres east of Moscow. Recently, she has been living in St Petersburg.
Stepanova, who received a one-year visa through NGOs, says she moved to Vilnius in early December before the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine because she felt persecuted.
“If I were still in Russia now, I’d definitely leave because war is unacceptable to me,” she told BNS, adding that the vast majority of her relatives and friends do not support Putin’s war against Ukraine.
According to Stepanova, people in Nizhny Novgorod are currently holding protests against the war in Ukraine, even though they know that “they will be put in jail”.
Among those facing criminal proceedings in the city are prominent journalists, she added.
More expected to flee Russia
Stepanova says she is in contact with other opposition activists in Vilnius and sees efforts by many Russians to leave their country. However, some of them have faced difficulties due to the suspension of visa issuance and the cancellation of flights from Russia.
Some are trying to reach Lithuania, for example, via Georgia, where tens of thousands of Russians have fled since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
“I’ve heard the Russian transport minister say that he will allow cars to leave Russia. I think there will be a flow to the Baltic states, especially from St Petersburg and the neighbouring cities because [...] it has become difficult to breathe there,” Stepanova said.
"It’s hopeless because people don’t want to live in fear,” she added.
Easier route to Caucasus
When asked how many people in his circle would like to move to Vilnius, Davidis said that many choose the easier route of fleeing to Georgia or Armenia, where they do not need visas.
Moreover, flights to the Caucasian countries continue to operate, unlike those to the EU.
“But those who have the opportunity, those who have a visa, of course, go to the Baltic states as well,” the opposition activist said.
“Many people give up everything. They don’t leave because they want to continue working as we do, but because they cannot stay in the country,” he added.
Davidis says he will continue his work to draw the world’s attention to the political prisoners in Russia, especially with the recent increase in their numbers amid the war in Ukraine.
In his words, some of the Memorial team will continue to work from Russia or remotely from other countries.
No good moves for Putin
According to Davidis, the problems he or other Russians are facing right now are not comparable to “the disasters that Putin has brought to the Ukrainian people”.
He believes, however, that the Russian president has “vastly overestimated his capabilities”, so the West should step up support for Ukraine to help it achieve a breakthrough in the war.
“There’s no good move for him [Putin]. He probably thinks that he cannot afford to retreat, but at the same time, he cannot win, which is a dramatic situation,” Davidis said.
“We can only be proud of the resilience of the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian soldiers, who stopped the aggression and prevented the Blitzkrieg scenario from materialising,” he added.
With Russian law enforcement detaining hundreds of anti-war protesters daily, Davidis is sceptical about the chances of larger crowds coming out to rally in his country.
In his words, many of his relatives, friends, and acquaintances are “categorically against the war”, and many go to protests, but these are “moral rather than political activities” that will not change the situation.
Ukraine’s strength
Stepanova believes that Ukraine will find the strength to “go into a counter-attack”, even though its capabilities are “not infinite”.
She also hopes that the West will provide Ukraine with continued assistance no matter how the events unfold.
In the activist’s words, the Internet remains the only window for non-propaganda information in Russia, but certain knowledge is needed to circumvent the restrictions imposed on social networks and independent media.
Meanwhile, many people believe only the Kremlin’s official distorted version of events, according to Stepanova.
“There are people who have been crushed by the regime for so many years that they are morally incapable of facing the truth. They are afraid of and probably immersed in this insanity shown on state television,” the woman said.
“Anyone can get information if they want to, but those who don’t want this watch state propaganda television which simply turns them into zombies,” she added.
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