Birth rates in Lithuania are falling year on year, with the government warning of a demographic crisis. Now, it’s putting forward proposals to encourage people to have more children.
Over the past five years, the number of babies born in the country has fallen by 6,000. On average, births decline by around 1,500 each year. For example, in 2024, more than 19,000 children were born, while last year the figure dropped to about 17,500.
Experts stress that priority is increasingly given to education, careers and financial stability.
“There is now a lot of discussion about a new trend: short-term employment relationships and temporary contracts are often cited as one of the reasons why younger people, particularly those aged 20 to 25, are not really considering having children at that stage of life,” says demographer Vytenis Juozas Deimantas.
According to President Gitanas Nausėda, the falling birth rate poses a threat to national security. He argues that families need incentives.
However, not everyone believes the situation is so severe.
“I think the demographic situation in Lithuania is being overstated. As the economy grows – wages and purchasing power are increasing – we are seeing improving migration trends,” says Aleksandras Izgorodinas, chief economist at Citadele Bank.
“That is, despite all the political risks, more people are coming to Lithuania, including citizens who left the country 10 years ago, as well as foreigners,” he added.
Tax incentives
The president has proposed a zero rate of personal income tax for people with two or more children, but only up to the level of one average salary. If a parent earns the average wage – about €1,400 after tax – they would not have to pay income tax. The measure would be in effect for five years.
He has also proposed a corporate tax relief for employers who hire parents with two or more children. This would mean it would be slightly cheaper for companies to employ such parents than those without children.
Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė has also said that for a long time, birth rate issues were either ignored or addressed only in a fragmented way.
“In all our decisions and when drafting legislation, we will assess the impact those decisions or proposals will have on strengthening families and on the demographic situation,” she says.
Some measures have already been agreed.
From June, the one-off payment at the birth of a child will rise to €1,036, and additional payments will be made to parents without sufficient employment history.
“They will receive child benefits of €444 until the child reaches the age of two, which will ease the financial situation and daily lives of nearly 1,700 families, allowing them to prepare for their careers while raising children,” says Social Security and Labour Minister Jūratė Zailskienė.
Investment or luxury?
According to demographer Deimantas, people in Western countries often say that benefits do not encourage them to have children, because the cost of raising a child is far higher, up to around €80,000 until adulthood.
“This question has been discussed in economic and sociological literature for about 50 years: are children an investment, or are they a luxury?” he says.
Even so, even modest financial incentives may still be useful.
“In modern society, especially in cities, raising children is very expensive. So even if such measures have only a small effect on birth rates, they are still important in supporting families with more children – whether through lower taxes or other types of benefits,” says Nerijus Mačiulis, chief economist at Swedbank.
The demographer adds that measures to boost birth rates must be comprehensive.
“Parents must be given the conditions to take paid leave and later balance childcare with work,” he says. “The second issue is services related to childcare – kindergartens, nurseries – so that both men and women can plan their careers, knowing they can rely on these services if they cannot rely on family support.”
A lack of social opportunities or messaging?
According to Minister Zailskienė, young people are not starting families because they struggle to find partners – they lack opportunities to meet.
“We are even talking about bringing back traditional discos, where older people now happily go dancing, and organising something similar for young people so they can at least meet,” she says. “It may sound like a joke, but it is quite a serious issue.”
The government also plans to promote higher birth rates through social campaigns and by introducing an award for the most family-friendly municipality.
Meanwhile, a group of MPs has proposed amending the Education Law so that schools place greater emphasis on the importance of marriage-based families. They argue such changes would help address the demographic crisis.
There are also proposals to amend laws on cultural policy and the public broadcaster, requiring LRT to produce content that promotes a positive view of marriage.
However, the parliamentary legal department has questioned whether these proposals would comply with the constitution, which defines the family more broadly than solely on the basis of marriage.
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