Lithuania’s conservative Homeland Union–Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) have narrowly overtaken the ruling Social Democrats to regain first place in party rankings, though the advantage remains within the margin of error, according to a Vilmorus poll published Friday by Lietuvos Rytas.
If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 13.7 percent of respondents would vote for the TS-LKD, up from 12.8 percent in September. Vilmorus Director Vladas Gaidys said the party has been gaining ground since Laurynas Kasčiūnas, former defence minister, was elected leader.
“This is their highest result since May 2021,” he told BNS.
Support for the ruling Lithuanian Social Democratic Party dropped to 12 percent, down sharply from 15.1 percent in September.
“This is their lowest score in four years,” Gaidys said. He attributed the decline to a turbulent period for the ruling bloc, including difficulties forming the government, the episode involving smugglers’ balloons, disruptions at Vilnius Airport and the temporary closure and reopening of a border crossing.
“In that context, the opposition had the cards in its hands,” he said.
Nemunas Dawn, a ruling coalition party, remains in third with 10 percent support, compared to 10.9 percent in September.
The opposition Democrats “For Lithuania” follow with 9.3 percent (8.5 percent previously), the ruling Farmers and Greens Union with 7.4 percent (7.2 percent), and the opposition Liberal Movement with 5.3 percent (5.4 percent).
Another 2.1 percent of respondents said they would vote for a different party. Some 11.4 percent said they would not vote, and 28.8 percent were undecided – both slightly higher than in September.
Vilmorus surveyed 1,000 adults between November 6 and 16. The margin of error is up to 3.1 percentage points.
President Nausėda’s approval at record low
President Gitanas Nausėda’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since he was elected in 2019, tightening his lead over opposition Democrats leader Saulius Skvernelis to the margin of error, the poll shows.
Nausėda remains the country’s most popular politician, but his favourability dropped to 45.2 percent, down from 58.3 percent in September. His unfavourable rating rose from 21.6 percent to 32.3 percent.
Gaidys described the drop as steep.
“I always saw the 50 percent mark as presidential. A politician who reaches that level is essentially electable because most people support him, and if he falls below it, something is off. And for the first time in all his terms, Nausėda has dropped to 45 percent,” he said.
The president faced backlash this autumn over his decisions on ministerial appointments, including approving Ignotas Adomavičius, a Nemunas Dawn member with no cultural background, as culture minister. The appointment drew protests from cultural figures and prompted several cultural events to boycott the president.
Nemunas Dawn leader Remigijus Žemaitaitis is now the country’s most disliked politician. According to the poll, 50.4 percent view him unfavourably, up from 47.1 percent, while favourable views dropped to 25.3 percent from 31.3 percent.
Skvernelis has climbed to second place in overall popularity, with 44.2 percent viewing him favourably and 30.5 percent unfavourably.
Farmers and Greens leader Aurelijus Veryga rose to third with an increase in favourable views from 36.6 percent in September to 39.6 percent, while his unfavourable rating dipped slightly to 35.2 percent.
Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, leader of the opposition Liberal Movement, ranks fourth. She is viewed favourably by 37.4 percent and unfavourably by 35.3 percent.
Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys follows in fifth place with 36.4 percent favourable and 22.3 percent unfavourable ratings.
Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė saw a sharp downturn, Gaidys said. She is viewed favourably by 35.4 percent of respondents, down from 41.5 percent, while her unfavourable rating rose from 27.8 percent to 41 percent.
The Vilmorus survey of 1,000 adults was conducted November 6–16 and carries a margin of error of up to 3.1 percentage points.
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