Pressed by security challenges and financial difficulties, Germany may be tightening its belt at the expense of the brigade to be deployed in Lithuania. According to the German weekly Der Spiegel, Berlin is cutting the budget of the planned brigade to between 4 and 6 billion euros, instead of the 6–9 billion quoted earlier.
This is not the first time that the figures have been revised downwards, but in general, the formation and financing of the brigade continue to be mired in uncertainty. “It would seem that in these times of rather empty coffers, a significant downward correction should bring relief. But instead, the new figures are causing distrust among parliamentarians and the Bundeswehr,” Der Spiegel wrote last week.
The issue is also making waves in the run-up to the important elections in Germany’s eastern states in the autumn.
Making use of existing capacities
A rough estimate is that 4–6 billion euros will cover the brigade’s essential weapons, such as tanks and ammunition. A further 1 billion will be needed annually to maintain the 5,000-strong brigade after 2027 when it reaches full formation.
Der Spiegel refers to correspondence between the German Finance Ministry and Helge Braun, chair of the Bundestag’s Budget Committee and member of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Justifying the cuts, the country’s State Secretary for Finance, Florian Toncar (liberal, FDP), argues that the Lithuanian brigade is being formed from new and existing units that are already equipped with weapons. The brigade will be made up of three combat units: the 122nd Armoured Infantry Battalion from Oberfychtach in Bavaria, the 203rd Armoured Battalion from Augustdorf in North Rhine-Westphalia, and a NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group.
Why such a large fluctuation in numbers? “This is because the Bundeswehr is being deployed abroad for the first time in history on such a large scale, the basic conditions have not yet been finalised, especially in terms of making the service attractive, and the detailed plan is still being worked out,” Der Spiegel quotes an extract from a 12-page document.
These figures are also not reflected in the draft budget for 2025.
The Ministry of Finance stresses that the figures are preliminary and subject to change, as it is not yet clear how much additional funding will be needed for the so-called “attractiveness measures” – bonuses and other benefits to entice German soldiers to come for longer periods of service and to bring their families.
Can’t find the needed money
Social Democrat Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, for whom the brigade in Lithuania has also become a personal prestige project, has often had to swallow bitter pills in recent months. The so-called “traffic lights coalition that currently governs Germany – the liberal FDP, the Greens, and the social-democratic SPD – has held long and fierce negotiations on the revised budget.
Defence Minister Pistorius had to curb his appetite considerably as his coalition partners did not agree to increase the defence budget as much as he wanted. At the start of the negotiations, the Social Democrats had demanded an increase of 6.7 billion euros for the Bundeswehr. However, he will only get 1.25 billion. It is also not at all clear how future governments will be able to meet the target set by the current government to increase defence spending to 80 billion in 2028 from the current 52 billion.
“Yes, I got much less than I asked for. This is frustrating because I cannot initiate certain things at the speed that changing times and threats require. I have to adapt and make the most of it,” Pistorius has said.
Der Spiegel also mentions an earlier report by Business Insider which said that Germany was concerned about Lithuania’s own pace in preparing the infrastructure for the brigade.
Electoral issue
Politicians interviewed by Der Spiegel, both from the ruling coalition and the opposition, expressed concern about the changing figures. Some said they wanted more clarity, while others saw manipulation where funding was simply moved around from one part of the armed forces to another.
More generally, the issue of the Lithuanian brigade is increasingly becoming a topic of political and electoral debate in the run-up to the important local elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia in the autumn.
In these eastern states, radical right and left parties are strong, the public is less supportive of Ukraine and more willing to negotiate with Russia. The prospects for the ruling coalition parties are bleak, while the far-right Alternative for Germany and the new radical left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance have a chance to strengthen their positions.
Bodo Ramelow, the current prime minister of Thuringia and spokesman for the left-wing Die Linke party, even spoke last week of the need for a non-aggression pact with Russia to protect Europe from war. He admitted to the Funke media group that the current Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is not a suitable negotiating partner, but that such a pact should be considered in the future.
He also referred to current events that increase the risks of conflict, mentioning not only Moldova and Georgia, which have unresolved territorial conflicts, but also Lithuania.
He mentioned the German brigade that will be permanently deployed in Lithuania. “There is a proposal in the Russian Duma to abolish Lithuania’s sovereignty. If this is taken up, very soon we could find ourselves at the epicentre of a war,” he said, referring to a bill submitted by Yevgeny Fyodorov of the ruling United Russia party as early as 2022, which proposes to revoke the recognition of Lithuania’s independence.
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