The results of Sunday’s election to the European Parliament is a poor indicator of what to expect at the upcoming Lithuanian general elections in October, political analysts say.
“I think that the European Parliament elections and the parliamentary elections are not necessarily comparable, we should look at the voter turnout. Those individuals or those parties with a lower level of support will not necessarily do well in the parliamentary election,” says Margarita Šešelgytė, director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI) at Vilnius University.
“I think we can definitely expect at least 50 percent [turnout in the general elections], maybe between 50 and 60 percent. In principle, this would mean almost twice as much as now. Of course, [the results] could change significantly,” Professor Ainė Ramonaitė from the TSPMI said.
The turnout at the EP elections was 28.94 percent.
The ruling conservative Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) performed best at the EP elections in Lithuania, securing three out of 11 seats in the European Parliament. The opposition Social Democrats came in second with two seats.
Some representatives of the winning parties told post-election press conferences that these results were a signal in the run-up to the October elections to the Lithuanian parliament, Seimas.
Mažvydas Jastramskis, an associate professor at the TSPMI, says the low turnout was favourable to the “more polarising actors”.
For her part, Ramonaitė says it was good both for the forces supported by the “more radical electorate” and for the incumbents with loyal voters, including the liberal Freedom Party.
“Several types of parties benefit from low turnout. One type is those that have loyal voters. Here, of course, we can talk about the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania–Christian Families Alliance,” the professor said.
“The other type includes parties whose voters are more highly educated and have a higher sense of duty to vote [...]. This applies to the TS-LKD (...) and I think that the Freedom Party, too, won in this area. And the third thing is that the electorate may be somewhat more radical,” she noted.
The Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, the Freedom Party, the Democrats “For Lithuania”, the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania–Christian Families Alliance, the Liberal Movement and the Nation and Justice Union each got one seat in the EP.
For some, this represents victory, but for others it may feel like a defeat, says Ramonaitė.
“It’s hard to say because we don’t know what their potential could be. The Democrats probably lost, the Liberal Movement lost as well, (...) as did the Social Democrats. These are the parties that do not have any enemies in principle and many people could vote for them, but they do not have a strong party identity or great enthusiasm,” Ramonaitė said.
Jastramskis also believes that the low turnout was the reason for the Freedom Party’s success as it got 8.09 percent of the vote and came in fourth, securing one seat in the EP.
Ramonaitė believes Dainius Žalimas, a former chairman of the Constitutional Court who ran for president last month, helped the Freedom Party.
“I think that some of the voters who voted for the Freedom Party voted for Žalimas,” the professor said.
Meanwhile, Šešelgytė points out that the low turnout was also favourable to Waldemar Tomaszewski of the Electoral Action of Poles and to Petras Grazulis of the Nation and Justice Union.
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