When NATO allies promised to increase forces for the defence of the Eastern flank at the Madrid Summit, the need for adequate infrastructure, supplies and support in Latvia increased. Therefore, Riga has decided to establish a new military base in Aizkraukle, near the Lithuanian border.
The Canadian-led NATO battle group in Latvia currently consists of some 2,000 troops, but NATO now plans to create a brigade-size unit of 3,000–5,000. The majority of allied soldiers are now stationed at the Adazi military base near Riga.
The country's defence minister, Artis Pabriks, also presented a plan to return to conscription. From next year, Latvia plans to call up men aged 18–27. Riga hopes the quotas will initially be filled by volunteers, with conscription becoming compulsory later.
However, the exact details of the process are yet to be defined – both the age limit and the length of service. It is not clear whether the changes will be discussed by the current parliament or whether decisions will be taken after the elections on October 1,
There is a debate on whether military service should also be compulsory for women.
"Conscription is one of the instruments that increase the resilience of society to crises, as military service provides the skills needed and useful in a variety of crises [not only in wartime],” Tomas Jermalavičius from the Estonian International Centre for Defence and Security Studies (ICDS) told LRT.lt. “The more members of society have such skills, the more resilient a country is.”
War in Ukraine
Earlier in Latvia, it was thought that the minister, who had called for a return to the conscription system, would essentially end his career, as the decision would be highly unpopular.
Analysts in Latvia noted that a proposal to reintroduce conscription in the country would have previously ended the career of a defence minister. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed the sentiments.
Now, conscription is seen by some observers as part of an election campaign, as much more of the public backs the beefing up of the Latvian armed forces.
"Under the present circumstances, the calculation is that this might be a good thing. because there will be a lot of people who will support this decision," Toms Rostoks, director of the Centre for Security and Strategy at the Latvian National Defence Academy, told LRT.lt. According to statistics available to him, about half of the Latvian public supports compulsory conscription, with support among older people being higher.
But the real problem is insufficient numbers. In the first half of this year, the Latvian army received only 98 applications for professional military service, compared to three times as many applications in the same period last year.
"We have a terrible shortage of professional forces, and those units will have to be, and conscripts will have to support those units," said Rostoks. The National Guard, the volunteer force, has received around 3,000 applications, but the professional units are facing personnel shortages.
This is primarily due to uncompetitive pay rates, made even more unattractive by double-digit percentage point inflation.
Latvia’s Defence Ministry now expects to expand the armed forces to 50,000 soldiers over five years: 14,000 in active service, 16,000 in the National Guard and 20,000 in the reserve.
The first year will see less than 1,000 conscripts called up for service, with analysts saying a larger number would simply not fit within the country’s current military infrastructure.
"It will be a slow start because we want the project to succeed. When the first 500 conscripts are called up on January 1, if it is not a success, they [the authors of the idea[ will be criticised heavily for that," said Rostok.
Latvia abandoned compulsory conscription in 2007 when it moved to a fully professional army and the National Guard units
There are also questions about how conscripts will be used and whether separate combat units will be created – their role varies from country to country, but so far Latvian officials have not elaborated on this issue either.
“The decision certainly has the potential to mitigate any problems related to personnel shortfalls but if poorly planned and executed, this could also decrease the combat capabilities of the existing armed forces,” Martin Hurt, an ICDS researcher, told LRT.lt.
Estonia introduced conscription in 1991 and has not abolished it, and has built up a significant reserve during this time. Lithuania abolished conscription in 2008, but reinstated it in 2016.
According to Hurt, the nine-month service currently in effect in Lithuania is too short.
Not everyone in favour
The commander of Latvia’s armed forces has previously spoken out against the move to reintroduce conscription. According to Rostoks, Latvia had already developed a strategy to attract people to the armed forces and services, with a pilot project in schools to introduce children to the basics of national security. From 2024, the subject would be compulsory for all Latvian pupils.
"The hope was that some of the children attending the courses would become interested and more people would join the police and the armed forces," said Rostoks.
But now Latvia is changing direction, increasing its army and defence funding, and trying to have more allied troops on its soil.
According to Jermalavičius, Lithuania had solved its armed forces challenges by switching to a mixed system of part professional, part conscript focus. “The war since February has changed the rules of the game and Latvians' whole vision of what is needed to ensure security and to solve those internal problems as soon as possible,” he said.
Russia's war against Ukraine has highlighted the importance of a well-trained, large reserve, because in a major war many soldiers die, Jermalavičius said.
"The deterrent effect on Russia is likely to be greater and more solid, and will force the Kremlin to rethink what can be done in this direction," he added.
Therefore, the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are increasing their defence spending and negotiating the purchase of joint weapons systems.
The aim is to reach agreements so that the armed forces can come to the rescue in the event of an incident without having to wait for supranational decisions. The fact that the pattern of filling the ranks of their military will become similar will also be an advantage for the collective defence of the Baltic States.
"Times have changed. The question is – if not now, then when? What other terrible things would need to happen to go back to transcription?" concluded Rostoks.
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