Fearing Russian aggression, German tourists are cancelling trips to their beloved Neringa, which borders Russia’s Kaliningrad. The local residents also feel threatened by the big neighbour, but officials and analysts reassure that Russia is not planning to invade Lithuania anytime soon.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted residents of Lithuania’s Neringa, which borders Kaliningrad, to pay closer attention to the neighbour’s actions.
“All the people who live here or come for holidays ask me, “How is the situation at the border?” I have to answer this question every day and more than once,” said Neringa Mayor Darius Jasaitis.
He urges Neringa residents and visitors to feel safe because there is no information on the possible threats from Kaliningrad.
“We feel safe today as much as the entire Lithuania and Poland. We have no knowledge or feeling that there is a greater danger. But of course, we all understand that these neighbours are very close,” Jasaitis said.
Nevertheless, Neringa is already experiencing losses due to the changed geopolitical situation. The Lithuanian resort is especially popular among German tourists who are already cancelling their trips for this summer.
But Jasaitis hopes that the places of German tourists will be taken by Lithuanian vacationers.
“There was a similar situation during the Covid-19 pandemic. There were mass cancellations because the movement was restricted, but those places were filled by Lithuanians […]. I think there will be more opportunities for Lithuanians to spend their holidays here,” the mayor said.
No threat
Certain anxiety of the Lithuanian population is also reflected on social media. In the comment sections, people discuss and ask the government representatives whether Lithuania should fear the Russian invasion.
There are also posts about Russia’s military build-up in the Kaliningrad region, and about trees being cut down and roads widened on the Russian side of the border near Neringa.
But Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas cautioned that there are currently no threats to Lithuania from Kaliningrad.
“I can tell you that Russia is focused on Ukraine. People need to be told clearly that the war is in Ukraine. Russia is also using the Kaliningrad capabilities to wage war against Ukraine. There are no conventional threats and none are foreseen in the near future," Anušauskas said.
Egidijus Papečkys, the security and international relations analyst, also said there are no signs of a threat to Lithuania from Russia.
“There is no evidence that Russian forces are being mobilised in Kaliningrad. Everything is directed against Ukraine. Lithuania is a NATO member. There is no reason to think that Lithuania alone or any other Baltic state could become a victim of Russian aggression,” he said.
According to him, anxiety is normal given the current geopolitical situation, but Lithuanians must listen more to what the government and other institutions are saying.
Papečkys also stressed the importance of the US and NATO intelligence services. In his words, they were very accurate in informing the public about Russia’s plans in Ukraine. They would also announce if there were any worrying developments near Lithuania.
“There is surveillance along NATO borders. We are well aware that NATO is capable of detecting the threat and responding to it in a timely manner,” the analyst said.
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