Lithuanian Social Democratic Party leader Mindaugas Sinkevičius has indicated that the country’s president and government should agree on a future strategy toward Belarus and suggested dialogue with Minsk could be considered if initiated by the United States. A radical – if cautious – shift in the rhetoric coming from a top politician has ruffled some feathers.
Sinkevičius’ remarks triggered criticism from both government officials and the opposition, who argued there have been no meaningful changes in Belarus’ behaviour toward Lithuania, a presumed precondition for any détente between Vilnius and Minsk.
The debate comes as Lithuanian authorities continue to accuse Belarus of orchestrating hybrid attacks, including irregular migration and disruptions caused by smuggler balloons drifting into Lithuanian airspace.
Lithuanian border guards recently detained 18 migrants who entered the country through a tunnel dug from Belarus into Lithuania’s Varėna district. The migrants were returned to Belarus. Officials said such tunnels are “unlikely” to be dug without the knowledge of Belarusian authorities.
Despite the ongoing tensions, Sinkevičius said he had seen signs of change following a March visit to Minsk by US special envoy John Coale.
“Certain changes have taken place after special envoy John Coale’s visit to Belarus,” Sinkevičius said, referring to issues involving detained transport vehicles and balloon incidents.
“I am a supporter of the idea that foreign policy is inseparable from diplomacy and dialogue,” he added.
According to Sinkevičius, discussions between Vilnius and Minsk could take place if encouraged by Washington.
While a leader of the country’s ruling party, Sinkevičius himself does not play any direct role in foreign policymaking.
Meanwhile, President Gitanas Nausėda rejected the suggestion that relations with Belarus are improving.
“I do not see any other positive changes – neither regarding the balloons, nor illegal migration, nor Belarus’ participation in Russia’s war against Ukraine,” Nausėda said.
US envoy Coale has previously urged Lithuania to hold deputy minister-level talks with Belarus on restoring fertiliser transit routes. The European Union in February extended sanctions against Belarus for another year.
Nausėda said there are no grounds for easing sanctions.
Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė has previously said a technical-level meeting with Minsk could be possible if Belarus stopped facilitating balloon incidents and irregular migration and released detained Lithuanian trucks without additional charges. Last week, however, she declined to comment directly on Sinkevičius’ proposal.
“Talk to Budrys, let him explain everything,” Ruginienė told reporters, referring to Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys. “For now, I do not want to say too much.”
Budrys said Lithuania’s problems with Belarus are increasing rather than diminishing.
“There is also the new issue of the safety of the Astravyets nuclear power plant, which remains unresolved,” Budrys said. “They are planning to build a third reactor and also want to construct a nuclear waste storage facility near the border.”
“I see no reason for relations to warm when we have such a basket of problems right on our doorstep,” he added.
The opposition also criticised Sinkevičius’ openness to dialogue with Minsk.
“If you go to meet someone in Belarus, who will that be? A representative of an independent sovereign Belarus?” asked conservative MP Žygimantas Pavilionis, deputy chairman of the parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs. “It will be Putin’s puppet speaking with Putin’s voice,” he said. “If Mindaugas wants to talk to Putin, then he is no longer representing Lithuania.”
Coale is expected to visit both Belarus and Lithuania shortly. In an interview with Reuters last week, he said he hopes additional political prisoners could be released in exchange for possible sanctions relief.
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