The Rail Baltica line, which is to connect the Baltic states from Warsaw to Tallinn, has been running late and massively over budget. However, Lithuania’s Transport Ministry assures that progress on this “project of the century” is already visible, with bridges and viaducts rising up.
Last Wednesday, Deputy Transport Minister Loreta Maskaliovienė presented an overview of the Rail Baltica project construction to members of the parliamentary Audit Committee. According to her, there has been some progress in the first section of the railway, between the northern town of Panevėžys and the Latvian border: planning and land acquisition have been completed, the government is planning to launch public tenders for design and construction by the end of the year.
“The biggest progress has been achieved on the second section of the line between Panevėžys and Kaunas: two stages, 30 kilometres of real construction,” she said.
New public tenders are already underway for another 36km of track bed and structures, Maskaliovienė added.
“Construction between Kaunas and Panevėžys is well underway. Next year, construction should start on the 115th kilometre from Kaunas towards Panevėžys.”
“The columns of the Neris Bridge and their foundations are being cast. The main, most complex elements of the structure – the viaducts – are being cast and erected. The construction of track bed is well underway,” she said.
The third section between Kaunas and the Polish border – there already is a slow freight-only line RB1 – is currently only subject to land-use planning. Land acquisition has started, design is being procured and construction is still being planned.
“This year, the government approved the special territorial planning document for the section between Kaunas and the Polish border. Procurement of design for construction works is already underway. This year we hope to have a contract for the design of the railway,” said Maskaliovienė.
“The plan is to have the link in place by 2028,” she explained.
The fourth section of Rail Baltica will connect Kaunas and Vilnius. The Specific Plan will not be approved until 2025. However, land acquisition has already been completed and implementation is planned. Procurement for design is also underway, but construction is still in the planning stage.
“We still have two phases of spatial planning to complete this year. These are the Vilnius-Kaunas special plan for the Vilnius-Kaunas area and the development plan for the Panevėžys interchange international station,” added Maskaliovienė.
Arenijus Jackus, Rail Baltica coordination manager, noted that construction is also underway on the Polish side.
“From Elk to Lithuania, the Poles are planning a railway with the same parameters as Rail Baltica, ie speeds of 250km/h, electrification, traffic management systems. From Warsaw to Bialystok, the work is practically complete, with speeds between 160 and 200km/h,” he said.
Passenger services should start operating between Panevėžys and Poland by 2028, Jackus added.
€15.4 billion for phase one
A recent joint report by the audit offices of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia showed that the total budget of the Rail Baltica project has quadrupled between 2017 and 2023, from 5.8 billion euros to 23.8 billion.
However, the project’s ballooning costs had been known even before that, as Marius Narmontas, head of the Lithuanian branch of the joint Baltic company RB Rail, pointed out at the meeting
“Our consultants, the Boston Consulting Group, told us that the 2017 figure of 5.8 billion euros was already 40-percent off the mark at the time,” he said.
In any case, the crises of recent years – the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the inflation shock – have increased the cost of the project even more.
The planned budget for the first phase alone (until 2030) is estimated at around 15.4 billion euros, of which Lithuania’s share is 5.4 billion.
Eivida Šlamė, head of the State Audit Office’s audit team, pointed out that there is still no plan for the timeframe and sources of funding for the second phase, which is to start after 2030 once Rail Baltica is already operational.
“The main risk is funding shortages. Between 2027 and 2028, when intensive construction work is expected, there could be a shortfall of 10–19 billion euros. Plans to reduce the scope of the project would likely halve the deficit to 10.1 billion. Of this, Lithuania’s share would be 3.9 billion. To complete the project, the deficit could reach almost 19 billion euros, of which Lithuania’s share would be 8.7 billion,” she warned.
Priority on the rail tracks
Deputy Minister of Transport Maskaliovienė stressed that Lithuania puts priority on building the track itself, while Latvians and Estonians seem to be more interested in constructing stations.
According to the deputy minister, the cost of the Rail Baltica main line is 11.844 billion euros, of which 4.58 billion is Lithuania’s share.
The cost of the point facilities (stations, etc) is expected to total 1.942 billion, including 212 million euros in Lithuania. Additional system costs are expected to amount to 1.568 billion (652 million in Lithuania).
“There is no reduction in the scope of the project. In order to make the project functional, in the first phase it is most important for Lithuania to have a dual track up to Panevėžys. We are trying to accelerate that, to start the construction and a lot of money has been allocated. From Panevėžys to Latvia, we plan to build a single track because Latvia has decided to have a single track. The Estonians have been planning a single track from the very beginning,” said Maskaliovienė.
Economic benefits
Maskaliovienė pointed out that the cost-benefit analysis carried out by the Boston Consulting Group showed that the economic benefits of Rail Baltica for Lithuania alone would amount to 6.6 billion euros, while the indirect benefits would be even higher.
According to Narmontas, of RB Rail, the economic impact of the project is even bigger, 28.1 billion euros.
“This is without counting additional benefits such as environmental sustainability, social justice, corridor synergies, impact on supply chains, military mobility,” he said, arguing that these would bring in 15 billion euros in additional benefits within 50 years.
Train stock
Šlamė, of the State Audit Office, warned that decisions on the purchase of trains should be made in the near future.
“It can take eight years to get them rolling: two years for procurement, four years to deliver the trains, and another two years for testing. We need to decide now,” she said. “The Latvian Audit Authority has estimated that 23–25 trains will be needed, costing around 300 million euros.”
However, Lithuania’s estimates are that 11 trains would be enough, according to Maskaliovienė.
Rail Baltica has a maximum design speed of 249km/h for passenger trains and 120km/h for freight trains.
The total length of the track is 870km, of which 213km are to be laid in Estonia, 265km in Latvia, and 392km in Lithuania.
The estimated journey times for high-speed trains are 38 minutes from Vilnius to Kaunas and under two hours from Vilnius to Riga. A ride from Vilnius to Tallinn will take 3 hours and 38 minutes.
