The outcome of the presidential election in Lithuania was predictable long in advance, political analysts say. It was determined not only by the popularity of the incumbent president but also by the unpopularity of the ruling conservatives.
On Sunday, Lithuania re-elected Gitanas Nausėda for a second term of office. In the presidential run-off, he faced Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, the candidate of the ruling conservative Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD). Nausėda received 74.43 percent of the votes, the most in the history of presidential run-offs in Lithuania.
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According to political scientist Ainius Lašas, the presidential election results are exceptional.
“I think that this result is exceptional because Nausėda’s popularity is really high. On the other hand, the scheme of a party candidate vying against the incumbent president is unfavourable to the party candidate,” he told LRT TV.
“In this case, it was quite clear that the president would be re-elected,” he added.
Talking about the relations between the President’s Office and the government after Nausėda’s re-election, the political scientist said that they will likely remain cold. Before the election, the president signalled that he would consider replacing a few ministers if re-elected.
“If the president raises more serious issues, the relationship will probably not only not improve, but will deteriorate again,” Lašas said, describing this moment as a potential point of tension.
But a lot will also depend on the parliamentary elections in Lithuania due to take place in October.
“If the centre-left coalition will emerge, which is probably the most likely scenario, [...] then I think we will see a bit more focus on the welfare state policies that the president has been promising us since 2019 without much implementation in reality,” Lašas explained.
Flirtation with Social Democrats
According to political commentator Jurga Tvaskienė, Šimonytė’s results are good, given that she entered the election as prime minister and candidate of TS-LKD.
A significant number of voters probably voted against the ruling conservatives when they voted for Nausėda, agreed political analyst Lauras Bielinis.
“Yes, some voters voted against the conservatives, which means they voted for Nausėda. This is what gave Nausėda the result he got,” he told LRT RADIO.
“On the other hand, we have to be well aware that the conservatives have not solved the big problem – they have not found the possibility, the form, the methods that would allow them to broaden their electoral circle. A constant percentage of voters vote for them, and everyone else is, if not neutral, then against them,” Bielinis added.
The outcome could also have been determined to some extent by the fact that the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) did not have their own candidate in the presidential election and supported Nausėda.
According to Bielinis, Nausėda expects to have “good communication with the Social Democrats” after the parliamentary election.
“There is a clear bond of sympathy between them, and in this way that cooperation will certainly take on a much more decisive decision-making path,” the political analyst said.
The president also expects the second term to be easier than the first, Tvaskienė said.
“The flirtation with the Social Democrats is very obvious. [...] But probably when the Seimas elections approach, the party will think about itself first and foremost, and there might be some conflicts and disagreements with the country’s leader,” she stressed.
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