News2023.05.05 08:00

LRT English Newsletter: Yes-but-no recession

Benas Gerdžiūnas 2023.05.05 08:00

LRT English Newsletter – May 5, 2023

For the second quarter in a row, Lithuania’s GDP has decreased, pushing the country into what is known as a technical recession. So, is it still a recession? Kind of. Is it a crisis? Not really, or at least that’s what the economists and politicians are saying.

According to the Bank of Lithuania, it’s difficult to define the exact moment a country’s economy enters a recession. In Lithuania’s case, the unemployment levels are not jumping, but high inflation continues to worry consumers. One painful fallout is the rising interest rates on mortgages, which have impacted Lithuania’s homeowners. Most loans available to Lithuanians do not have fixed rates, leading to (in some cases) two-fold jumps in monthly repayments after Europe’s central bank started raising the interest rates.

Now, one in five Lithuanians is at risk of poverty, according to the Food Bank, whose clientele has grown by 20,000 since last year to 180,000 (that’s out of a population of just under 3 million). The main reasons are the rising food prices and, again, the interest rates – some of those hit by rising mortgage repayments have been forced to seek Food Bank’s assistance, as they can no longer afford to feed their families.

PUSHBACKS

Last week, Lithuania legalised the controversial practice of migrant pushbacks, which means anyone crossing the border irregularly would be turned away and sent back to Belarus. Although criticising the Minsk regime for its use of migrants for political goals, the UN’s refugee agency also urged the Lithuanian government to reconsider. There were attempts to include a list of countries whose citizens could claim asylum but it was eventually thrown out.

GOOD RUSSIANS, GOOD BELARUSIANS?

Last month, a law was passed introducing additional sanctions against Belarusian and Russian nationals. Despite eventually softened (to Belarusians, not so much to the Russians), the discussions still shook the foundations of safe exile claimed by thousands of Belarusians in Lithuania. This reflected the ongoing post-invasion discussions about whether the Belarusian and Russian societies bare the blame for the war. In an opinion piece, Joshua Kroeker argues that it is the collective trauma of survival-trumps-all in the Soviet era that is shaping the response of the Russian people.

BEEFING UP BALTICS

There have been several defence updates this week centred around the Baltic states. Namely, Washington is planning to send more ships, Denmark has pledged more troops, and German troops have said they are ready to put up a fight. Meanwhile, Lithuania’s homegrown industry has kicked into gear following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

EDITOR’S PICKS:

– Moves to lift EU sanctions on Belarusian fertiliser exports, seen as a cash cow for the Minsk regime, are seeing backlash from the Baltic states and Poland.

– Lithuania is starting to prepare for holding the EU’s rotating presidency in the first half of 2027.

– A new law in Lithuania has come into effect on May 1, making it mandatory for municipalities to remove monuments and other symbols in public spaces that propagate totalitarian and authoritarian regimes.

– A fifth of Lithuanians have reported a negative shift in their opinion of President Gitanas Nausėda after he admitted he joined the Communist Party in the late 1980s, a new survey shows.

– A “čiūto tūto” deep-dive into the story behind Lithuania’s Eurovision hopeful.

– Those waiting for dual nationalities face an uphill struggle in the upcoming referendum.

– Here’s what Russian intelligence thought it could do to keep the Baltics close.

– And here’s what you can do to explore Lithuania’s springtime beauty.

Would you like to contribute to LRT English? Please send your suggestions, submissions, and pitches to english@lrt.lt

Written by Benas Gerdžiūnas
Edited by Ieva Žvinakytė

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