Lithuania’s ruling conservatives have crumbled in the municipal and mayoral elections that wrapped up on Sunday. Although winning big in Vilnius, their foothold across the rest of the country is slipping.
The Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) won five mayoral posts in this year's local elections, around half of what they won four years ago.
Among the party’s failures, it saw the end of 16-year rule by Agirdas Vrubliauskas in Alytus District, Andrius Bautronis in Raseiniai, and a failure of an MP to get elected.
Read more: Social Democrats win most mayoral seats in Lithuania’s local elections
Speaking to reporters after the elections on Sunday, the party’s leadership blamed the defeat on voter dissatisfaction in the regions, as well as on the party's domestic scandals.
“Every election is the responsibility of the party chairman, I would not see it any other way,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, head of the party and the foreign minister, told LRT. “I will not take part in any more elections for party chairman.”
He said the election loss was a clear signal and will form the basis for discussions on the "future direction of the party".
While the TS-LKD is becoming stronger in big cities and the capital, it is declining in the regions and on the municipal level, according to Paulius Gritėnas, a political observer.
“Even in regions that used to be conservative, where it was common to have a conservative mayor out of inertia, they are losing ground,” he told LRT. “The consolidation in larger cities and their orientation toward urban voters have undermined [the party].”
“We cannot make a direct correlation without sociological studies, we can only speculate, but we can see a trend that the conservatives are finding it increasingly difficult to attract the less interested voters from the centre, the centre-left or even the centre-right,” Gritėnas added.
Gabrielė Burbulytė, a political scientist at Klaipėda University (KU), said poor communication, as well as the scandal surrounding one former conservative MP who is accused of sexually abusing minors, led to the dismal election results. But the responsibility of the party leader cannot be dismissed, she added.
For example, Lithuania’s Social Democrats (LSDP) had “not the best of days" after the last parliamentary elections, but the situation changed with the election of Vilija Blinkevičiūtė as the party chair.
“Blinkevičiūtė has been working very consistently throughout this time, we can see that this is paying dividends,” said Burbulytė.
Therefore, Landsbergis should take responsibility, she added.
“I take the managerial line, even though we are talking about political science, that the leader is still responsible for everything,” said Burbulytė, adding that this does not mean that Landsbergis should resign.
According to political observer Gritėnas, mayoral elections are like small presidential elections, where voters' sympathies are based more on the personality of the mayoral candidate. Therefore, the role of the party chair is less important than in national elections.
“The particularity of local elections is that party leaders or the party elite, in general, do not have much influence on [...] the regions,” said Gritėnas.
However, Landsbergis has been more involved in international politics in his post as the foreign minister, somewhat neglecting domestic involvement.
“The question is whether he is going to retreat before the national elections, or whether he will reduce his role in the party altogether, or whether it is a mistake for the party leader to be so passive in domestic politics,” said Gritėnas.
‘The party is being punished’
Long-time TS-LKD members interviewed by LRT said that the party's underperformance was caused by both internal problems and external factors. Former Seimas Speaker Irena Degutienė pointed out that some well-known conservative mayors did not win the elections either.
“Objectively speaking, this is certainly a failure. I cannot say that [TS-LKD] lost in a landslide, but it is a failure,” she said.
On the other hand, the conservatives were very successful in Vilnius City Municipality where they will have both the mayorship and the biggest group in the city council.
According to Degutienė, the party’s struggle outside the big cities was down to dissatisfaction with the national government. Disillusioned voters, she said, will vote for anyone as long as it is not a conservative politician.
“The party is being punished [...]. This has happened before for the Social Democratic Party. You are better placed for the municipal elections if you are in the opposition,” said Degutienė.
Conservative MP Audronius Ažubalis said the party’s failures were linked to ideological reasons. After forming a ruling coalition with two liberal parties, the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party, TS-LKD disappointed old-time socially conservative voters because of its relatively liberal stance on family, ethnic minorities, and the Polish spelling of names in passports.
“One should not think that voters do not follow the election programme,” Ažubalis said. “If we look at what we said in the 2020 election programme about the family, the politics of the state, now we do it differently in practice.”
“The voter, I think, felt a bit cheated,” he added.
According to Ažbulis, the party is “drifting a bit toward the Freedom Party”, adding that a split within the party, however, was unlikely.
Ažubalis agrees that the party is often seen as elitist, far removed from ordinary people.
“Arrogance, it must be admitted, is characteristic of some of the party's representatives. Arrogance is a suicidal thing in politics,” he added.
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