The climate and nature tend to change over many years. But global warming means that these changes are happening much faster than they should. How is Lithuanian nature changing, and how will it look a few decades from now?
“I still remember what nature was like 40 years ago. We used to have 300 bird species, and now we have 404 or 405. Of course, some of them just visit [Lithuania], but there are already some that live here permanently, even though we had no idea that they could live here,” says nature photographer Marius Čepulis.
“As for the insects, we are still studying how many of the new species have come. And the mammals... The closest jackals used to live to us was in the Ukrainian steppes, and now they may be breeding in Lithuania,” he adds.
Little Ice Age
Climate and nature in Europe had undergone drastic changes before. It is estimated that seven centuries ago, the average temperature in Lithuania was as much as four degrees higher than today.
“This means that there was more humidity, warmer winters, hotter summers, and the vegetation changed accordingly, with more deciduous forests flourishing,” explains Tomas Čelkis, a historian at Vilnius University (VU).
But from the 1300s onwards, drastic climate changes began to take place across Europe. The average temperature dropped by up to one degree every year. At the time, the knights of the German Order, who organised crusades to the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, complained about being forced to fight not only Lithuanian pagans but also the freezing temperatures.
“There were some winters when you couldn’t cross the field because there was snow up to the waist. The second thing was the cold. In some years, it was so cold that people could not go outside because they would freeze their limbs, nose, or ears instantly,” Čelkis says.
Not only the people but also nature had to adapt to the unexpected climate changes. For example, the Baltic Sea used to freeze over in the 15-16th centuries.
“When the sea freezes, it’s not just the water that freezes, but everything: the land, the forests, and herbivorous animals can no longer reach their food, which is deep beneath the snow,” the historian explains.
“There are even documented cases of wolf packs coming from the Scandinavian peninsula across the frozen Baltic Sea to Lithuania in search of food,” he adds.
This period, known as the Little Ice Age, lasted several hundred years until around 1850, changing the Lithuanian climate and nature. Today, however, the climate changes that are already taking place are expected to happen much more quickly.
New species
How will warming temperatures change Lithuanian nature? It is predicted that in a few decades, the climate in the Baltic region will be like the one that prevails in central Europe today.
“In terms of what Lithuanian nature will look like, we are probably heading towards something similar to Ukraine, southern Poland, or Hungary,” says Žymantas Morkvėnas, head of the Baltic Environment Forum.
As Lithuania’s climate changes, some plant species will inevitably become extinct. Some animals will also start migrating as the climate becomes unfavourable to them.
“Species that are used to a particular temperature start to leave when the environment is no longer suitable for them, and they migrate to cooler areas. This is how certain animals, bacteria, fungi, lichens, plants, beetles, and all kinds of organisms migrate,” says Mantas Antanas Davidavičius, head of the Department of Philosophy of Vytautas Magnus University.
The freed-up space in Lithuanian nature will also be occupied by new species of plants and animals that will arrive from abroad. This process is already underway.
“For example, we used to see the praying mantis only in nature documentaries. But the winters are getting milder in Lithuania because of climate change, so this insect can overwinter and reproduce here. Now, every year, I find the praying mantis on my farm while mowing the meadow,” says Morkvėnas.
“Another example is the wasp spider. This is a predatory spider that feeds on other spiders, has a very specific web and resembles a wasp in its body. It is thought to be one of the species that have been introduced to Lithuania because of climate change,” he adds.
The effects of climate change on nature are also exacerbated by humans. People used to bring invasive plant species to Lithuania that can now spread more easily because of the warming climate.
“There are also animals that come with humans. In the past, they could not adapt to the new climate because it was too cold. Now, because of the warming climate, they can adapt and survive here. The Spanish slug, which came from the south, is one such example, which now ‘delights’ gardeners,” jokes nature photographer M. Čepulis.
“I’m not even talking about animals that come and bring pathogens. That’s another problem because when they bring pathogens, they can also transmit the infection to other species,” he adds. “We already have a problem with our European bison because there are tick species from the south that can infect them.”
Endangered trees
Climate change disrupts nature’s clock, which makes it more difficult for plants and animals to know when winter ends and spring begins.
“We have situations where, for example, bird migration calendars are changing as the climate becomes milder. Birds come back earlier, but other parts of the ecosystem, such as the development cycle of insects, do not necessarily change at the same rate. So, birds come back, but the insects that they feed on are not yet there, and it can lead to the loss of certain species,” says Morkvėnas, head of the Baltic Environment Forum.
Lithuanian trees are also at risk. For example, the spread of the fungus that causes ash tree drying has been linked to climate change.
“The spruce’s habitat is moving to the north due to climate change and increased droughts. Spruce needs soil that is sufficiently moist. It is also more susceptible to various parasites. We are seeing these trends and they are only increasing. In the future, we will probably have no spruce trees and no spruce forests,” warns Morkvėnas.
The spruce and pine forests are not only a symbol of Lithuanian nature but also an important resource for the timber industry. Thus, the changing nature might become not only an aesthetic but also an economic problem.
“Nature can cope with the worst disasters. It is very flexible, driven by a survival mechanism. [...] Climate change teaches us a similar lesson – nature will adapt to it in one way or another. The question is whether we, humans, will be able to successfully adapt to climate change”, says climatologist Gintarė Klimienė.
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