Estonian experts say that the Russian army is now unlikely to have the capacity to mount a serious offensive on the so-called Suwałki Gap to cut Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia off from the rest of NATO, Estonian public broadcaster ERR reports.
It is true, however, that the Suwałki Gap remains a vulnerable spot in NATO’s defences. General Veiko-Vello Palm of the Estonian Defence Forces stresses that Russia could seek to split NATO troops by blocking off the Baltic countries from the rest.
The Suwałki Gap is a 100-kilometre stretch of the Lithuanian-Polish border wedged between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad.
Part of the assumption, according to Palm, is that foreign governments would be unwilling to put their troops at risk for an obscure area in Lithuania.
“Who wants to die for some no-name village in Lithuania? This has been the general question posed,” ERR quotes Palm. “Now the last months have clearly shown that this fear was in vain on our part – the West is united, and NATO is united. The Russian Federation cannot remain reliant [on political division].”
Still, he adds, Russia is able to learn from its military defeats and therefore “by no means will it pay-off in the long-term perspective to underestimate Russia”.
Tomas Jarmalavičius, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security, noted that even though the Baltic Sea will become an internal NATO lake once Sweden and Finland joins the alliance, Russia will still have access through Kaliningrad and St Petersburg, which means a continuing maritime threat.
But in an emergency, the Baltic countries could be reached not only by land, but also by air or sea.
Experts agree that Russian forces should not be underestimated, as Moscow may rebuild its strength after the Ukraine war, so the Suwałki Gap will remain an issue.
Read more: The most dangerous place on earth? What life is like on the Suwalki Gap
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