Chinese diplomats have spoken out against criticism of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime, while Beijing has also sought closer military and economic ties with Minsk and Moscow. What would a bigger Beijing presence in the region mean for Lithuania and the Baltics?
In a show of budding ties, Chinese President Xi Jinping was the first to congratulate Alexander Lukashenko on “winning” the elections on August 9. However, Beijing initially remained uncommitted as Lukashenko unleashed violent crackdowns on protesters, while the opposition called out to China: even if Lukashenko falls, the growing Sino-Belarusian economic ties will remain intact.
Belarus was important because Minsk had welcomed Chinese investment with open arms, including via the One Belt, One Road initiative, and because it has supported China politically on the international stage.
“There are few other countries in the region [Eastern and Central Europe] that have such unquestioning support for Chinese policies and presence,” said Chris Miller from Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
China and Belarus have also cooperated as members of the UN Human Rights Council, while Beijing has openly expressed support for Lukashenko’s regime, condemning the UN's call to stop human rights violations in Belarus.
"We cooperate in all areas with Belarusian friends. We treat each other as equals and support each other's fundamental interests. China supports Belarus in the international arena, your country supports China," Xie Xiaoyong, China’s ambassador to Minsk, said in March.
Belarussian diplomats, likewise, have taken Beijing’s side during international outrage over Beijing's handling of Hong Kong.
“The Chinese strongly dislike shifts from an authoritarian regime to a democracy, exactly what is being attempted right now in Belarus. [...] Beijing fears colour revolutions,” says Konstantinas Andrijauskas, a China analyst at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science (TSPMI).
Read more: ‘We will not be intimidated.’ Despite China threats, Lithuania moves to recognise Uighur genocide
From economic partnership to politics
At first, China viewed Belarus as a potential economic partner in Eastern Europe and a gateway to effective trade with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Minsk was then also included in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructural investment project aiming to connect East Asia to Europe.
Last year, China was Belarus' biggest trade partner after Russia. The China-Belarus Great Stone Industrial Park near Minsk has also brought investors and companies to the country.
Read more: The fading charm offensive. Is China losing its game in Central and Eastern Europe?
“By diversifying investment and opening some trade with China, Belarus' leaders can slightly reduce their economic dependence on Moscow,” said Miller. “This gives them a little more room for maneuver in relations with the Kremlin.”
China also expects political dividends from its trade relations, according to Andrijauskas.
“The economy comes first, but with larger economic involvement from China comes political engagement, whether you like it or not,” he said.
However, “we also cannot say that the trade relations [between Minsk and Beijing] have taken off”, added Andrijauskas.
No military alliance?
During Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit in Beijing on April 22–23, both sides stressed that they had a shared worldview, according to analyst Dmitri Trenin.
Writing for the official Communist Party news website China Daily, Trenin said that both countries affirmed coming under pressure from the US and the UN. In response, Trenin suggested strengthening military cooperation between China and Russia, as well as Belarus.
So far, cooperation in this field has been limited to police training and various joint drills over the past several decades. But in 2018, the Chinese navy entered the Baltic Sea for the first time to take part in military drills with Russia.
Moscow has also invited China to participate in the Belarussian-Russian strategic military drills Zapad 2021, which will take place near the Baltic borders.
Russia claims that the Zapad drills will invlolve only strictly defensive maneuvers, although analysts have noted that last year’s exercises included imitating an attack on the Baltic states and Poland.
“If China also confirms its participation in Zapad 2021, it will be intriguing to see how the Chinese armed forces define their role in a military operation against NATO in Europe,” the Estonian foreign intelligence service said in its 2021 threat assessment report.
The exercise will also serve to test the new Belarusian military tech. Last year, Minsk reportedly purchased the advanced Russian anti-aircraft missile systems S-400. Analysts say that this is another step towards handing Minsk’s airspace defence to Russia.
“Such advances are obviously intended for the eyes of the Western countries,” said Andrijauskas. “[As if saying that] If you treat us badly or don’t listen to us, we have a lot of military power and China can join us. Imagine – millions of China’s People’s Liberation Army soldiers near your borders.”
But despite such initiatives, Russia is in no rush to form a military alliance with China. Back in October, Vladimir Putin admitted that, while such an alliance could be discussed and that Russia’s cooperation allowed the Chinese armed forces to grow, there was no need for an alliance yet.
“There already is substantial alignment between the three governments in political terms, [which] will likely continue, [but] it is hard to envision a meaningful alliance between the three countries developing,” said Miller.
According to Andrijauskas, Beijing considers such alliances a thing of the past, so there is no reason for China to form an alliance with Russia and, by extension, Belarus.
Read more: ‘Washington minions’: Baltics have angered China
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