Lithuania’s intelligence services say the country’s security is closely linked to the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine, noting that as long as Moscow devotes most of its resources to the conflict, its ability to pose a direct military threat to Lithuania and other NATO countries remains limited.
The assessment was published in the annual national security threat report presented by the State Security Department of Lithuania and the Second Investigation Department under the Ministry of National Defence.
“If Russia continues military operations against Ukraine at the same intensity as in the past four years, the war will require significant human and financial resources, so Russia’s ability to pose military threats to other states will remain limited,” Lithuanian intelligence agencies said in the report.
However, the agencies stressed that even while fighting in Ukraine, Russia is continuing military reforms and creating new units, most of which are being sent to fight in Ukraine.
According to the assessment, if the war continues in the long term – about six to 10 years – Russia will likely be able to fully staff newly created units with personnel and equipment. Still, it would probably struggle to rebuild strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition needed for a large-scale conflict with NATO.
The worst-case scenario, the report says, would be a peace agreement accompanied by the removal of most or all international sanctions against Russia. In that case, Moscow could be ready for a limited military conflict in the Baltic region within one to two years and could prepare for a large-scale conflict with NATO within six to 10 years.
“In the long term, Russia would likely build an army that is not only 30–50% larger than before the war but also relatively modern,” the report said.
Military capacity expanding despite war
The report says Russia’s ability to endure economic difficulties, heavy troop losses and international sanctions has been notable.
Even while fighting in Ukraine, Russia is gradually expanding military capabilities along NATO’s eastern border. Brigades along the alliance’s frontier are being expanded into divisions, and new military formations are being created.
Military infrastructure is also being developed in Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast, which is part of the Leningrad Military District.
Lithuanian intelligence said many of the newly formed units are not yet fully staffed due to shortages of personnel, equipment and infrastructure. Newly created units and their equipment are typically deployed to Ukraine rather than remaining at their permanent bases.
In the Kaliningrad region, Russia is also actively using electronic warfare systems to disrupt satellite signals and falsify positioning data. While these measures are intended to protect military facilities and critical infrastructure from drones, they can interfere with nearby civilian aviation, the report noted.
Russia pursuing technological self-sufficiency
Russia’s defence industry is currently meeting minimal wartime needs across most weapons sectors, which Lithuanian intelligence described as a concerning development.
Modernisation continues across several industries, with new production facilities being built. In 2025, defence companies focused heavily on hiring engineers to launch new production equipment.
Russia has often found alternatives to Western technology, and companies must now prove that domestic substitutes are unavailable before being allowed to purchase foreign components.
However, Russia still struggles to replace advanced electronic components required for high-tech systems. Some technologies are obtained from China, though the Kremlin reportedly views dependence on Beijing as a strategic risk.
Lithuanian intelligence assesses that while Russia is unlikely to catch up with Western countries in high-tech sectors, its resilience to Western sanctions could increase significantly within three to five years.
Drone production surging
The report highlights the rapid expansion of Russia’s drone manufacturing capabilities during the war in Ukraine.
Production of certain drone types increased between twofold and tenfold in 2025 compared with previous years. As a result, Russia has sharply increased the number of drone strikes on Ukraine – from about 300 attacks at the beginning of 2024 to around 6,000 by July 2025.
Monthly production of long-range drones such as Geran-2 drone and Gerbera drone rose from roughly 500 units to between 5,000 and 6,000.
The surge in drone activity has increased the risk of incidents beyond Ukraine’s borders. Lithuanian authorities said that in July last year two Russian Gerbera drones crossed into Lithuania and crashed there, one carrying a high-explosive fragmentation charge. Intelligence officials said both likely entered the country accidentally.
Russia maintains goal of subjugating Ukraine
More than four years into the war, Russia has not changed its strategic objectives, the report says. Moscow continues seeking to capture more Ukrainian territory and ultimately bring Ukraine under its control while altering the balance of power in Europe.
To achieve this, Russia is attempting to divide Ukraine’s supporters. Lithuanian intelligence says Russian rhetoric increasingly targets Europe as the main adversary rather than the United States, whose president, Donald Trump, has shown a more favourable stance toward Vladimir Putin.
“Russia is intensifying hostile activities against European states and appears increasingly unconcerned that its covert operations will be exposed or cause serious consequences, including human casualties,” the report said.
Although Russia faces economic challenges and has raised taxes, analysts believe financial pressure is unlikely to significantly alter its aggressive foreign policy. The country currently spends about 38% of its budget – or roughly 7–8% of its GDP – on defence and security.
Belarus unlikely to change course
The report also assesses that Belarus, led by Alexander Lukashenko, has recently sought to ease tensions with Western countries but is unlikely to abandon its authoritarian policies.
Lithuanian intelligence says Minsk uses political prisoners as bargaining tools and that any improvement in economic ties with the West would not replace Belarus’ growing dependence on Russia.
Belarus’ policy toward Lithuania and other neighbouring countries is expected to remain confrontational.
The report also states that Belarusian authorities have the capability to stop the smuggling of cigarettes into Lithuania using weather balloons but are deliberately allowing such activity to continue, exploiting criminal networks to pressure Lithuania into political dialogue.
At the same time, Belarus is attempting to reduce its international isolation by strengthening ties with China, although Beijing’s direct investments in the country have been declining for the past five years.
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