According to meteorologist Andrius Laurynaitis, the scale of smuggler balloon incursions generally depends on weather conditions – wind direction and speed. This, he suggests, may explain why, after Lithuania closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, balloon activity temporarily ceased and Vilnius Airport operated without interruption.
Border guard official: smuggling is being prevented more effectively than before
From Sunday to Monday morning, Latvia’s interior services intercepted seven contraband balloons launched from Belarus. Each carried an average of around 60,000 illegal cigarettes.
Lithuania’s Border Guard Service (VSAT) spokesperson Giedrius Mišutis said that Lithuanian officers also intercepted seven shipments in the past 24 hours, and that nearly 600 attempts to smuggle cigarettes from Belarus have been recorded this year.
According to Mišutis, smuggling prevention has become significantly more effective: this year, border guards have intercepted three times more cigarettes than last year – around four million packs. A total of 116 people involved in airborne smuggling have been detained, and nearly 300 individuals connected to cigarette transport have been arrested.
He added that, for the first time in the history of the VSAT, the majority of illegal tobacco no longer comes from Belarus but from Latvia, via the internal EU border. Of the more than four million packs seized this year, over two million were intercepted coming from Latvia.
Mišutis attributes the improved situation to decisive government action to strengthen border security.
“Smugglers no longer have ways to move these shipments overland. With physical barriers and surveillance systems installed along the Belarusian border, and with checkpoints closed – especially the railway checkpoint through which hundreds of thousands of packs used to pass – those routes have been shut down,” he said.
As Lithuania tightened land-border controls, smugglers began seeking alternative methods to move goods — leading to the rise of balloon-based smuggling.
“Once those land routes were closed, smuggling took to the air. The balloons and drones we now see are smugglers’ attempts to salvage their operations and deliver cigarettes to Lithuania by any means,” Mišutis said.
Meteorologist: weather often determines the scale of balloon incursions
Meteorologist Andrius Laurynaitis, head of the Measurement Quality and Technology Division at the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, suggested that disruptions at Vilnius Airport are usually the result of wind patterns conducive to balloon movement, rather than any decisions taken by Lithuanian authorities.
“In this case, Lithuanian officials cannot be held responsible – it is a matter of natural conditions. Wind direction and speed are the key factors. Nature has simply provided conditions that allow the balloons to drift into Lithuanian airspace,” Laurynaitis said.
Meteorologists, he added, use forecasts to predict potential balloon trajectories as accurately as possible and pass this information on to state institutions.
“Our forecasters now prepare projections not only for surface conditions, which matter to the general public, but also for specific altitudes – for instance, 1.5 to 3 kilometres. We provide these forecasts to institutions that may find them useful. We share the information the day before, because contraband balloons usually fly at night, when they are harder to spot,” he explained.
However, even precise weather data does not guarantee certainty about whether balloons aloft at a particular time will disrupt airport operations; it depends on their altitude.
“Previously, as last year’s and this year’s experience shows, balloons used to travel at low altitudes – perhaps 1 to 1.3 kilometres. Now, according to reports from the media and public institutions, they can reach heights of up to 10 kilometres. It is far more difficult to predict weather conditions reliably at such altitudes,” Laurynaitis said.
For three weeks after the government closed two border checkpoints with Belarus, balloon activity ceased entirely. Laurynaitis says unfavourable weather conditions likely played a role.
“Smugglers closely monitor forecasts and assess whether it makes sense to launch. They may have launched balloons despite the forecast, in which case they might have drifted the opposite way – deeper into Belarus. At certain altitudes, wind direction can shift completely and carry them back,” he said.
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