Forty-five percent of Lithuanians supported the ongoing cultural protests, according to an LRT survey. A majority of respondents also believed that President Gitanas Nausėda, who approved the cabinet of ministers, bore responsibility for the crisis.
A public opinion poll was conducted by Norstat between October 1 and 6 and commissioned by LRT. A total of 1,000 Lithuanian residents were interviewed by phone and online. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.
According to the results, 45 percent of Lithuanians support the protest, 32 percent oppose it, and 23 percent have no opinion.
The survey comes in response to the cultural sector protesting against the populist Nemunas Dawn party being handed the Culture Ministry as part of a new coalition agreement. Last weekend, more than 300 demonstrations took place across Lithuania and abroad, with the culture sector vowing to continue protesting.
Sociologists say the results indicate exceptionally high public support for the protests.
“We live in a society where supporting a protest as a normal form of civic participation is not very common. So 45 percent – almost half of the population – is a remarkable level of support,” sociologist Tadas Šarūnas told LRT.lt.
Those opposing the protests, as well as Nemunas Dawn politicians, previously claimed that the demonstrations reflected the interests of the Vilnius bubble. However, the poll showed otherwise – for example, 42 percent of rural residents backed the protests.
Political analyst Matas Baltrukevičius noted that those opposing the protests largely overlap with the electorate of Nemunas Dawn and its leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis.
The port city of Klaipėda stood out as the only major city where opponents outnumbered supporters, while the highest support came from younger, higher-income residents living in larger urban areas.
“These are the parts of Lithuania with fewer state-funded cultural institutions – and it is their representatives who are the main flagbearers of the protest,” Šarūnas said.
President seen as responsible
The survey showed that 30 percent pinned the blame for the situation on President Nausėda. Meanwhile, 11 percent blamed Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė, 11 percent pinned responsibility on Nemunas Dawn, 13 percent on the Social Democratic Party, and eight percent on the cultural sector itself.
According to analysts, Nausėda getting blamed for the protests reflected the president’s role in shaping the current government. He publicly criticised the former culture minister and refused to approve Nemunas Dawn candidate for energy minister – after which the party was given the culture portfolio instead.
“He positioned himself as a decision-maker. If the president managed to ensure that the Energy Ministry didn’t go to Nemuno Aušra, people might expect he could make similar trade-offs if the cultural sector seemed equally important to him,” Baltrukevičius said.
“The president has a strong interest in resolving this crisis, as a key part of his image is that of a culture-friendly president and a collector of books. He doesn’t just show up at cultural events to tick a box – he engages and takes an interest. It’s important for him not to end up seen as an unwelcome figure in the long term,” Baltrukevičius said.
Meanwhile, sociologist Šarūnas suggested that the protest movement could polarise society.
He recalled the example of the post-pandemic anti-LGBT protests, when around 40 percent of the population said they supported the protests and another 40 percent opposed them.
“A third of respondents opposing the protests is still a significant share. The question is how this social movement develops – what message it sends, and how it maintains dialogue with institutions,” the sociologist said.
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