Half of Lithuania’s population said they felt anxious ahead of joint Russian-Belarusian military drills Zapad 2025 held in Belarus, according to a new poll commissioned by LRT.
The survey by Baltijos Tyrimai, conducted August 21–September 2 before the exercises began, found that 15% of respondents said they were “definitely” anxious and 35% said they were “somewhat” anxious. By contrast, 44% said they were not worried.
Women and seniors over 65 were the most likely to express concern, at 56% and 61% respectively. Factors such as income and whether people lived in rural or urban areas did not appear to influence results, pollster Romas Mačiūnas said.
The reaction to Zapad reflects broader trends of interest in current affairs and defence, Mačiūnas told LRT.lt. “People tend to fear more what they know less about,” he speculated as to why men, presumably more active in following military news, were less anxious than women.
The least concerned group was 30–49-year-olds, described as the most active consumers of information. By contrast, older generations expressed the greatest fear, which Mačiūnas linked to memories of Soviet rule.
The poll also highlighted ethnic differences. Non-ethnic Lithuanians, including Russian and Polish speakers, were about half as likely as ethnic Lithuanians to say the drills posed a threat. Mačiūnas said this reflected broader sympathies toward Russia and Belarus.
Trust in NATO also shaped perceptions: those who expressed confidence in the alliance were more likely to view Russia and Belarus as threats. Around 70% of Lithuanians say they trust NATO, surveys show.
Defence analyst Egidijus Papečkys, commander of the 4th Riflemen’s Union unit in Suvalkija, said he too noticed anxiety about the drills, particularly among women and older people. He said social media fuelled panic by spreading claims that the government was unprepared to close land borders if necessary.
“Some do it irresponsibly, others perhaps for personal gain or popularity. A lot of this anxiety is coming from social networks,” Papečkys said.
He added that while the Lithuanian media provided extensive coverage of the drills, Russian state outlets gave them little attention. “It turns out we created a bigger informational background than Russia itself,” he said.
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