After a Russian drone crashed in central Lithuania carrying two kilograms of explosives, the country appealed to NATO for counter-drone systems – even experimental ones. Defence Minister Dovilė Šakalienė said NATO had agreed to get involved in protecting Lithuanian airspace. But experts question the alliance’s role, saying innovation in NATO moves slowly and leadership will need to come from the countries most affected by the threat.
The Russian Gerbera drone that fell at the Gaižiūnai training area was carrying 2 kilograms of explosives. In open terrain, the blast could have sent shrapnel flying up to 50 metres. Inside a building, it could have been deadly.
“Support walls might remain, but nearly everyone inside would be killed,” said bomb disposal instructor Rimas Armaitis.
The military said the UAV was first spotted over Belarus but later disappeared from radar. Witness reports helped experts reconstruct its likely flight path, which would have brought it to central Vilnius within minutes, passing near the president’s residence.
The drone travelled more than 100 kilometres through Lithuania before crashing at the Gaižiūnai training area near Rukla, where a NATO forward battalion is stationed.
Drones of this type are designed to confuse air defences. Ukrainian forces say Russia increasingly arms them with explosives to strike smaller targets.
Officials believe this Gerbera was diverted into Lithuania by Ukrainian countermeasures. It was the second Russian drone to enter Lithuania in a month; the first was unarmed, according to the military.
“We know our weak points,” said Col. Dainius Paškevičius, chief of staff of the Lithuanian Air Force. Lithuania has modern medium- and long-range radar, he said, but in some areas interference prevents detection of unidentified targets flying at low and very low altitudes.
Acting Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys discussed the issue with NATO’s secretary-general. “We agreed the situation is serious and such incidents are dangerous,” he said. “For us, the most important thing is to get assurance that this is NATO’s shared responsibility and that NATO is in the lead.”
Lithuania is asking the alliance to deploy additional counter-drone capabilities. But the defence minister acknowledged that this would be a challenge for NATO as a whole.
“It’s quite complicated to find solutions for countering drones,” Šakalienė said. “They are using certain experimental methods and weapons that have not been used as primary systems before.”
But experts are sceptical about NATO’s ability to provide military assistance in Lithuania quickly.
“NATO systems built 20–30 years ago require upgrading, and that process is slow,” said Edvinas Kerza, head of defence firm ScaleWolf. “It’s unlikely that innovative solutions will arrive through NATO channels in the near term.”
He noted the systems are most urgently needed by NATO’s eastern members.
Last year, Poland even used horses to search for a possible drone that may have entered the country, but it was never found. Poland’s airspace is violated more often than Lithuania’s. Three years ago, a missile exploded near the Ukrainian border, killing two people.
“People are afraid and worried that war is knocking on NATO’s door,” said Tomas Milašauskas, head of RSI Europe.
Poland has launched its Eastern Shield programme. But experts note that radars and electronic systems are still only in the ordering phase.
“There are three large modernisation programs in Poland aimed at strengthening our missile defence and air defence capabilities,” said Jacub Bornio, senior analyst at the Centre for Central Europe.
In Lithuania, the search for the drone included calls for public assistance. The military says identifying drones is technically challenging.
“There’s no silver bullet,” said Col. Paškevičius, chief of staff of the Lithuanian Air Force. “It should be a fusion of different technologies and types of sensors.”
But according to business leaders, such technologies already exist in Israel, the United States and Turkey. With the growing threat from Beijing, Taiwan is also installing counter-drone systems.
“They build towers every few kilometres, equipped with radar, visual sensors, radio detectors, kinetic interceptors, radio-frequency jammers and interceptor drones,” Milašauskas said.
Business leaders say these examples could be integrated in Lithuania. “Quite easily, and with local partnerships, we could have success stories,” said ScaleWolf head Kerza.
Lithuanians have already developed a “drone catcher” used by border guards. Business leaders say that with adaptation, it could be one way to neutralise Russian Gerbera and Shahed-type drones.
According to Kerza, countries themselves should develop these solutions and then help NATO adapt them.
Business leaders say the threats can be overcome – it just takes time and focus.
“This doesn’t require fantasy-level money,” Kerza said. “We could use existing infrastructure in Lithuania – the same towers that could be fitted with cameras and acoustic sensors.”
Until modern systems are in place, the Lithuanian military is deploying additional air defence units along the Belarusian border, forming mobile groups and planning exercises this month. Experts say regional solutions are essential.
“The strategy must match what our opponents are doing,” Bornio said. “Sometimes you have only a few dozen seconds to identify a target, so the decision-making process must be adapted to that speed.”
Experts say such incidents will only become more frequent, and it will be impossible to catch them all.
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