The Russian-Belarusian large-scale joint military exercise Zapad, scheduled for this autumn, will not be “bigger or more threatening” than it was four years ago, says Remigijus Baltrėnas, chief of the Defence Staff of the Lithuanian Armed Forces.
“No one can deny that Russia and Belarus still have hostile intentions – we see what’s going on – but this year’s Zapad isn’t any bigger or more threatening than it was in 2021,” he told reporters on Tuesday.
According to Baltrėnas, public statements suggest that Zapad 2025 will involve 13,000 troops.
“Given the situation in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus simply can’t afford a larger-scale exercise – it’s physically impossible. [...] The Russians always underreport their numbers in their drills, but when you add everything up, the total still grows,” the Defence Staff chief said.
“But this is being monitored. Both NATO intelligence and Lithuanian intelligence are carrying out their functions, early warning systems are in place, and for now we don’t expect any surprises,” he added.
Held every two years since 2009, the Zapad exercise is scheduled for September.
The officially stated objectives are to practice joint defensive and offensive operations, improve cooperation between the armed forces and test troops’ readiness for various security scenarios.
However, the drills always raise concerns among officials in neighbouring countries about the risk of unintentional incidents.
No Zapad exercise took place in 2023.
British intelligence has cited Russia’s shortage of troops and equipment, as well as the Kremlin’s unwillingness to face criticism for holding yet another show of force during the war in Ukraine, as likely reasons for the cancellation.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has said that Tarassis 25 – a Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) exercise scheduled to run at the same time as Zapad – will be the largest since the multinational force was established.
This autumn, Lithuanian Armed Forces combat units will also take part in the Thunder Strike exercise, which will include tactical manoeuvres across various locations and military training areas, in line with the country’s national defence plan.
