A heavily armoured M88 recovery vehicle sank in a swamp at the Pabradė training ground earlier this week, with specialists suggesting that the crew likely had little chance of survival.
The M88 armoured recovery vehicle, an essential asset for military operations, is designed to retrieve damaged tanks and heavy combat equipment from the battlefield. The vehicle shares many characteristics with a tank, including its tracks, engine, and heavy armour, but does not have offensive weaponry. Instead, it is equipped with engineering tools such as a crane and winches to aid in battlefield recovery.
Challenges of manoeuvrability and visibility
According to defence analyst Aleksandras Matonis, the M88 is built for combat conditions and can withstand enemy fire. However, its significant weight – averaging around 63 tons – makes it susceptible to difficult terrain conditions, particularly in waterlogged or sandy areas.
“This is essentially a tank. It operates on a tank chassis with a tank engine, but it lacks a turret and gun,” Matonis told LRT.lt. “Instead, it has an extendable A-shaped crane. It can be used for recovering stranded or damaged machinery.”
Despite its robust build, its weight makes it highly vulnerable on soft or unstable ground.
Visibility from inside the M88 is also more limited compared to a standard tank. Tank drivers typically open hatches for better visibility, but the M88’s crew must rely on periscopes, which offer restricted sightlines. If the crew was inside the sealed vehicle when it entered the swamp, their ability to escape would have been severely limited.
Sudden descent and limited escape options
Expert opinions suggest that the M88 sank rapidly upon entering the swamp. Retired Colonel Gintaras Ažubalis, speaking to LRT TV’s Dienos Tema programme, emphasised that water obstacles are among the most dangerous challenges for armoured vehicles.
“A tank is not a submarine, nor is it built to float. […] If this incident involved a body of water, it’s one of the worst possible scenarios,” Ažubalis said. Once submerged, the M88 would have sunk almost instantly, he added.
The vehicle is believed to be at least five meters underwater, making rescue efforts challenging. Military experts note that in combat scenarios, recovery vehicles like the M88 typically operate with an escort for added security and support. However, in this case, the absence of immediate knowledge regarding the vehicle’s location suggests it was moving alone.
Communication and rescue difficulties
As of now, the crew members are officially listed as missing, as their bodies have not been recovered. Questions remain about whether they had any opportunity to signal for help. The M88 is equipped with radio communication systems, but it is unclear whether they functioned underwater.
In international operations, every vehicle is equipped with tracking devices that allow for real-time monitoring of their position, Matonis said. It’s unknown whether the M88 had such a system in place.
Retired Major Darius Antanaitis, speaking on LRT TV’s Svarbi Valanda programme, noted that if the M88 flipped over during the accident, its antennas could have been buried in mud or submerged, rendering communication impossible.
If the antennas were facing downward, there would be no way to send a distress signal, according to Antanaitis. “With metal surrounding them, making a phone call would also be unlikely,” he added.
Fate for the crew
Experts believe the crew had almost no chance of escaping once the vehicle submerged. If the M88 was flipped or fully submerged, opening escape hatches would have been nearly impossible due to water pressure.
Even in civilian vehicles, escaping a sinking car is extremely difficult because water pressure makes it nearly impossible to open doors, Matonis explained.
While military vehicles are often operated with open hatches in training conditions, it remains unclear whether this was the case during the incident. Investigators will analyse the vehicle’s condition upon retrieval to determine if any hatches or doors were open, which could provide clues about the crew’s final moments.
The Lithuanian Armed Forces have launched an investigation into the incident. Recovery operations are ongoing, but the depth and location of the sunken vehicle pose significant challenges for military divers and engineers.
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