Spread over two rounds, Lithuania’s general elections are characterised by two-week suspense that was released on Sunday night when run-off results came in. Here are our main takeaways and questions that remain to be answered in the coming weeks.
The winners
The Social Democrats (LSDP) swept the single-member constituencies, winning 32 out of 37 races they were running in, a triumph few had expected. Although the 52 seats they secured in the 141-member Seimas are short of a majority, coalition governments are the rule in Lithuania and the Social Democrats received enough of a mandate to lead a strong government.
The losers
The incumbents suffered an unequivocal defeat. The conservative Homeland Union (TS-LKD) won 10 seats in 33 races on Sunday, much worse than expected. Adding insult to injury, the party’s leader, Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, lost his constituency in Kaunas and has already announced that he is stepping down from the chairmanship and, what’s more, will not be taking up a seat in the parliament that he won in the party list vote.
In total, the conservatives are looking to have 28 seats in the next parliament and the second-biggest parliamentary group, dominating the opposition.
Meanwhile, the party that was truly dealt an existential blow by the elections is the Freedom Party which is poised to be completely absent from the next parliament.
The maverick
The Dawn of the Nemunas (Nemuno Aušra) party, a brand new electoral vehicle for Remigijus Žemaitaitis, is left in an ambiguous situation with 20 seats and the third biggest group in the Seimas. Before the second round, Žemaitaitis was going about kingmaker-like and insisting the math wouldn’t add up for any centre-left coalition without him. Well, now it does and the Nemunas Dawn is likely to remain in the opposition, alongside the conservatives whom he sees as his chief archnemesis.
The coalition
Even as the results were still coming in, the Social Democratic headquarters welcomed delegates from two other parties they were eyeing as coalition parners: the Democratic Union “For Lithuania”, led by former prime minister Saulius Skvernelis (14 seats), and the Farmers and Greens Union, LVŽS (8 seats).
Notably, the two delegations came in separately, a gesture many interpreted as a sign of persisting tensions between the two (Skvernelis split from the LVŽS, reportedly over a fallout with the party’s leader Ramūnas Karbauskis). Whether they can smooth it over and work together remains to be seen.
If not, the alternative third member of the coalition could be the Liberal Movement (12 seats), an option that Skvernelis has previously indicated is his preferred one. The liberals themselves have not ruled it out either, only saying they could not work with the LVŽS or the Nemunas Dawn.
The prime minister
Though the leader of the winning party would be expected to be the head of government, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė has so far emphatically refused to confirm she will take up the post. A member of the European Parliament for over a decade, she seems conspicuously reluctant to return to national politics, despite being one of the most popular politicians at the moment.
Who if not her? Former LSDP chairman Gintautas Paluckas could her stand-in, although his personal popularity does not come close to Blinkevičiūtė’s (he was eliminated from the race in his single-member district in the first round).
Critics will insist this is a cop-out on Blinkevičiūtė’s part and that it is unfathomable for a governing party leader to not be prime minister. On the latter point, at least, it is not quite true, the last two prime ministers were not even members of their respective parties when they took up the post.
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