Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans says the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine remains difficult, so he does not expect the war to end this year or next. In an interview with LRT TV, he talks about striking Russian territory and defending NATO’s Eastern flank.
The Netherlands does not prohibit Ukraine from using the weapons it provides against targets in Russia. Why don’t other countries do the same? And why did it take so long to make the decision to strike Russia with all available weapons without any restrictions?
Our position has been very clear from the beginning – Ukraine needs to comply with international law, and international law says that a country has the right to self-defence. It’s also in the UN charter. The international law doesn’t stop at the Russian border and the right to self-defence doesn’t stop at the Russian border or 100 kilometres away from the Russian border. It applies everywhere. It means that Ukraine is allowed to hit military targets inside Russia or to intercept, for example, missiles above Russian territory.
Of course, every country has its own considerations. Why don’t they allow Ukraine to do this? It’s hard to summarise, and you should ask every country individually what their considerations are.
The Dutch have already delivered F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. How are they performing now?
I cannot share any operational details, and that’s not because I don’t want to inform the Lithuanian public about it, but because we don’t want to inform Russia. We know that Russia is watching very closely what’s happening around the F-16s, around their delivery and functioning. So, I don’t share any operational details because of the security of Ukraine, of Ukrainian pilots. We don’t want to make Russia wiser than they already are.
Your country is one of your biggest supporters of Ukraine and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has a victory plan. How familiar are you with it?
I know in general the diplomatic efforts by Mr Zelensky. I met him personally a few times. During my first weekend as a minister of defence, me and my colleague, the minister of foreign affairs, went to Kyiv and Odesa. And, of course, we were also briefed by President Zelensky about his current diplomatic and military efforts, but not about the specific details of the victory plan. I also think that it’s still a work in progress. But of course, if the time is right, we will be very much engaged in this discussion.
Do you believe the war could end this year?
I don’t think the war will end this year. I also don’t see it ending next year. Of course, we should provide military support to Ukraine as much as we can, but we also need to be realistic. The situation on the battlefield is very difficult. That means that we need to do more, but we should also not raise the expectations too high because, as I sometimes say, people first thought that the Russian invasion was a sprint and then it turned into a marathon. Actually, it’s a sprint of 42 kilometres, and we need to keep providing support to Ukraine and work very hard to help them. But we also need to do that in the longer term. We need to make sure that the Dutch population and other Europeans are willing to support Ukraine in the longer term. Therefore, we should not raise any false expectations because then people might get disappointed.
How powerful is Russia today in your opinion?
I think they are powerful. Of course, we see it on the battlefield that they are able to continue this war and fight very intensely for a long time. If you look at the projections around what they are able to produce there, the military industry is able to produce a lot. Also, if you look at the number of people that they are able to mobilise, those numbers are very high. Russia is really playing a numbers game, and it’s very hard for Ukraine to defend against this. So, we should take the threat from Russia very seriously.
Russia is a nuclear power, and they are also fighting hybrid warfare. Of course, Lithuania is experiencing that on a daily basis, but also the Netherlands and other countries in Europe are seeing that. The threats that we are facing from Russia are diverse, and we need to make a lot of investments in order to defend ourselves against that and also to deter Russia from any further aggression.
As Germany’s role in Lithuania is changing with the brigade, are you planning to send more forces to Lithuania?
We are making plans. Of course, we know that Germany is now planning for a permanent brigade deployment, and we are also making plans to see how we can further add to that. Our presence will probably remain more on a rotational basis. We have been here in Lithuania for a long time now, and our commitment is solid. We are also planning ahead after 2026 when the current mandate is ending. Our presence will probably be more flexible than Germany’s, but we are working very closely together to make sure that we add more capabilities to what Germany is already doing.
You also have F-35 fighter jets. Could we see them protecting our sky?
Yes. We will participate in the NATO Air Policing mission, which is based in Estonia. The F-35s are covering not only Estonia but the entire Eastern flank, including Lithuania. We are very much committed to that. We are also delivering drones to Romania, which are now covering Romania and the Black Sea. We are also looking into how we can further expand the territory to cover, for example, the Baltic states.
Recently, we have seen more Russian drones entering NATO airspace in Poland, Romania, and now Latvia. In your opinion, is NATO's reaction too slow regarding this?
I think our reaction should be clear and fast because if our reaction is unclear, then Russia might see that as a sign of weakness. We do have the capabilities to defend our airspace, so our message to Russia should be clear and violation of our airspace should be unacceptable. It’s also dangerous because it has a risk of escalation if a more serious incident happens.
Of course, member states first and foremost are responsible for defending their own airspace, but if they need more support from NATO, the alliance should be able to provide that support. So, we need to act soon, we need to make decisions on this, on how we can further bolster the air defence of NATO countries that are facing this threat so that Russia sees that there is no weakness here. And that will, hopefully, discourage them from making any further incursions and any further threats.
A couple of months ago, the chief of defence of the Netherlands visited Lithuania. He said at the time that we must be ready for what we do not expect. Are we ready for that?
We are not fully ready yet. If you look at the NATO plans for our presence, more investments should be made. But we do have time for that. We know that Russia is spending a lot of resources in Ukraine at the moment. But we also know that they are planning ahead for further aggression over the next three to five to ten years. And we need to make sure that we invest now and act soon to make sure that we have the defence and deterrence available here when it’s needed. If we want to have that deterrence in place, for example, in 3 to 5 years, it means that we need to act now and we need to invest now.
The Dutch government has already announced that it will increase its defence spending and invest in tanks, fighter jets, and ships. The budget is expected to reach 24 billion euros. Could it be even bigger in the future?
We are committed to the 2 percent norm. We, the new government, have said that that will be the minimum. That means that when our economy is growing, of course, the budget for the military is growing. But for now, we also experience that we have sometimes difficulty with spending the money in an effective way because we have a lack of space and people in the Netherlands. Also, when you purchase a certain system or equipment, it takes a long time for it to be delivered. So, at this point, our biggest challenge is to make sure that our money is spent in an effective way, and maybe in the longer term, more will be needed. But with the budget that we have now, we have enough to make a further step in bolstering our military.
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