If Moscow were to attack NATO’s eastern flank, the allies would see it coming and have time to prepare. Germany, which has already committed and assigned a special brigade to the defence of Lithuania, would be the main contributor, while the alliance’s plan is to defend every inch of its territory and prevent the Russians from crossing the border, former German Land Forces Commander General Jörg Vollmer stressed in an exclusive interview with LRT.lt.
He was the head of the German armed forces from 2015 to 2020 and the head of the NATO Joint Force Headquarters in Brunswick from 2020 to June 2022, responsible for the defence of the eastern flank, including Lithuania.
During his visit to Lithuania, General Vollmer told LRT.lt that NATO underwent a paradigm shift following Moscow’s attack on Ukraine, and that Germany is ready to defend its allies against Russia.
“If aggression broke out, we would beat them wherever we need to,” Vollmer said.
When the Ukraine war started, the current chief of the German army said that the Bundeswehr was depleted. There’ve been reports about shortages of ammunition, equipment, troops and so on. What is the current state of the German armed forces?
After the brutal attack of Russia against Ukraine on February 24, the German chancellor [Olaf Scholz] on the 27th gave his speech about the Zeitenwende, which means a turning point in history. And he made it very clear that he wants to have the German armed forces combat-ready again. He decided to spend 100 billion euros to help the armed forces to get back to their readiness status. And over time to also fulfil the 2-percent pledge [for defence spending] which was made in Wales [NATO summit] in 2014.
It always takes time to put that into action. But what the chancellor decided has to become law. So whatever party will be elected in two or three years, they cannot change this position. The 100-billion pledge was put into a law which was then agreed by parliament last June.
From my perspective, the chancellor is right with the Zeitenwende. It has been the culmination of what happened already in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the war in East Ukraine and Donbas. We already started restructuring the army, asking for more equipment, so that all the formations had 100 percent of their equipment, spare parts and ammunition stocks.
But in the last years, the focus was still on Afghanistan. That needs to be understood. It’s easy now to say: Why haven’t you been fast enough? We were still committed in Afghanistan. We were and still are committed in Africa, Mali, for example. And at the same time, we were rebuilding the forces, but not fast enough, to put it this way.
And what [German army chief] General Alfons Mais stated is, of course, a very alarming signal. We need to refill the troops with the necessary equipment and necessary stocks. The problem at the moment is that you have to restock and at the same time provide support which is necessary for Ukraine. Howitzers are provided to Ukraine, a lot of engineer tanks, bridge laying tanks, Marder IFVs, Leopard tanks. We are repairing them in certain locations outside of Ukraine. And we are using our spare parts, our ammunition to do everything which is necessary to support Ukraine. But that increases the problem because the number of material is even decreasing because you put things away. So all the procurement processes now have to speed up and they are working hard to do it.
NATO’s attitudes have also changed?
Germany at the same time has taken the commitment for Lithuania, providing the eFP battlegroup, taking responsibility. This commitment continues. They even increased it when the decision was made to keep a brigade ready on a permanent basis. They’ve already pre-stationed a forward command element in Lithuania.
In June last year, our heads of state decided at the Madrid NATO summit on the new strategic concept. Very importantly, Russia is now the main threat, the main enemy. They decided now we need to have a defence plan to defend allied territory. That is a paradigm shift, because until then we always had the process of force generating for our out-of-area missions. […]
In Madrid, the decision was made that, first of all, we again have a regional responsibility for the operation headquarters in Brunssum, Naples and Norfolk. […] Now these plans are written, they are on their way to Brussels to be approved by the nations.
Next paradigm shift is nations are asked to provide or assign their forces on a permanent basis for these regional tasks. And that is the new NATO force model, where forces are assigned and ready to deploy within 10 days, 30 days, 180 days. […]
The German chancellor in Madrid decided and officially announced that Germany will provide a division by 2025, with the readiness status of 30 days, plus 20 ships and 60 airplanes. That’s a strong commitment. […] Nobody even thinks about decreasing commitments, commitments stay, commitments are made, commitments will be fulfilled.
After Germany assigned a brigade to defend Lithuania, there was a discussion about whether that brigades would be stationed here, in Lithuania, or stay in Germany. From a military standpoint, is it effective enough to keep the troops in Germany? And would that serve as a deterrent?
When we saw the build-up of Russian forces [at Ukraine’s borders], we assessed an attack as possible. A lot of activities were taken in NATO to increase our capabilities at the eastern border. Before, we had the eFP battlegroups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Additional forward battlegroups were agreed on with Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria. Increase of forces of existing battlegroups, including in Lithuania, took place. So a lot of additional enablers were deployed. And this German-led battlegroup grew up from 1,000 to 1,500 troops, bringing in everything which was necessary.
And then the decision was made [at the Madrid summit] to have brigade size elements instead of battle groups. Germany is the country that decided, okay, we take our commitment seriously and we will provide this brigade. And so they provided a forward command element, they are working out the plans together with Lithuanians for what enablers are needed, what is their responsibility in the defence plan. Ongoing is a conversation between the Lithuanian armed forces and the German armed forces on how to improve what will be provided.
The discussion if your need to have a brigade in place is not very helpful, because what is important is to have the commitment. And the commitment can be seen on a daily basis with the forward command, it can be seen with the conversations, the working groups, working out the details, where to deploy, what kind of equipment, what kind of packages of spare parts, ammunition need to be pre-deployed. […]
More importantly, you have to look at the broader picture. We have the decision for regional responsibility again and Brunssum is the headquarters responsible for the north-eastern flank, including Lithuania. You are really safe, you are in the middle. The next step would be to break it down to the plan for the defence of Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland and so on. What kind of forces do we need now, what kind of forces do we need to have pre-deployed on a permanent basis. […]
One of the lessons learned from the attack of Russia on Ukraine is that they need time to build up their forces, to pre-position materiel and so on. And we always need to have this kind of a clear picture to allow us to give advice to our political leaders: this is what we see, that is what we assess, and now we have to activate the troops.
You have mentioned the equipment and the help that the West and Germany are providing to Ukraine. In your opinion, should the tanks have come earlier? And is it possible to see jets at some point in the future?
We need to do everything that the Ukrainians in the end win. They will define what winning means in the end. I will not go into a discussion whether assistance should have been faster and so on. […]
I think all of our countries have done a lot and they will continue. But we always have to find a balance of keeping our own capabilities ready. At the moment, the war is fought in Ukraine, so they need our support. But it should be seen from our perspective of 30 NATO nations and there are some nations who are far away, with all due respect, from Ukraine, and they might be those who could deliver more. But that is a personal opinion. And others who are closer should do everything they can, but there is a limit. You have to have a certain amount of equipment in your own forces to be able to continue with training. […]
Do you think Germany and other eastern flank countries are near the limit of how much equipment they can provide to the Ukrainians?
Germany has provided quite a lot, will continue to provide. However, I think it is important now to coordinate with other nations. […]
Now what is important is to have this coordination between all the “Leopard” nations. We have 2,500 leopard tanks still in Europe in different variations, in different readiness status and so on. But they need to be organised in a way that they are combat ready companies, battalions with all these different types. To organise the training and then move them as fast as possible to Ukraine.
Would you be willing to speculate about what can the Ukrainians achieve in the battlefield? Can they liberate all the territories? And if they win the war, can they become a full member of NATO at some point?
I will not speculate, I’m absolutely convinced they will win. How much territory they will gain back, I don’t know. But I’m absolutely convinced in their capabilities and their will to in the end be successful in this war. Where the line will be and where the negotiations will start – this is speculation. […]
If Ukraine stays a sovereign state – and I’m absolutely convinced this will happen – we will then see how this process will go with the European Union. NATO, I think, would be at the moment a bridge too far.
After the war, our focus will be on stabilising and rebuilding the country. We know this will take some time and a lot of support. I think the support will be provided.
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