The Washington Post has published a run-down of the months and days leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the report, only the Baltic states and Britain heeded the warnings that a full-scale war was imminent.
The publication, based on interviews with more than three dozen senior US, Ukrainian, European, and NATO officials, has revealed that NATO was "far from unified" on how to deal with Moscow.
"A big part of our focus," recalled Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser of the US, "was basically to say to them, ‘Look, we’ll take the diplomatic track and treat it [as] serious [...] if you will take the planning for [military] force posture and sanctions seriously.’”
The two sides of NATO, split into vying for a diplomatic option with the other doing its best to prepare for war, were "convinced it was right but was willing to proceed as if it might be wrong" the Post reported.
Zelensky was also convinced a mobilisation would result in panic and capital flight, pushing the country’s struggling economy over the edge.
Meanwhile, NATO’s eastern and southeastern members thought Russian President Vladimir Putin may do something "limited in scope", ie taking another "bite at the [Ukrainian] apple", according to one official.
But Britain and the Baltic states, according to the Post, believed a full-scale invasion was coming and were the only ones to be "on board" with the US assessment.
Washington already knew in October that Russia was poised for an attack, but the only question that remained was when. The report has also revealed that Washington was able to pierce the top layers of the Kremlin’s war planning apparatus, from intelligence down to the frontlines.
Intelligence assessments presented by the Post largely confirm the view presented by analysts and think tanks on why Putin had decided to invade – with Ukraine drifting west, he believed his window to act was closing, while his own time to cement his legacy was nearing the end.
He also allegedly believed the United States was too weak to intervene following the shambolic Afghanistan withdrawal and any response by the West would be limited in punishment.
The Ukrainians themselves were sceptical of warnings from the US – they couldn't afford to dismiss them but saw them as speculative. Kyiv officials asked for proof but were allegedly given none until the last four or five days before the invasion.
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