The West has recently accused Russia of a military build-up in preparation to invade Ukraine. The military conflict is not a given, but the EU and NATO must demonstrate support for Ukraine, according to Lithuanian Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas.
“It is clear that Putin is escalating the situation, but the build-up of forces looks more like a scare tactic,” Anušauskas said in an interview with LRT TV.
According to him, Russia’s escalation might not lead to a military conflict, as its primary goal is to intimidate Europe and the United States.
“This does not mean that there is no real threat. Of course, it all depends on Putin’s political decision, for example, to launch some kind of military action to frighten the Western countries even more,” Anušauskas said.
On Wednesday, the defence minister is travelling to Ukraine, where he will discuss Lithuania’s “training mission and involvement in supporting Ukraine”.
“We need to understand that there are countries both in NATO and the EU that believe that if we actively support Ukraine, it will provoke Putin even more,” Anušauskas said. “I am convinced that in this respect, Western countries must not back down. They must support Ukraine politically and militarily.”
According to the defence minister, Russia’s military build-up near Ukraine is signalling its old grievances related to the war in Eastern Ukraine.
“Russia has not regained its political position. It hoped that the occupation of part of Ukraine would be accepted in the West and that Russia would return as a member of the major powers, but this has not happened,” Anušauskas said.
“I believe that Putin wants to regain these political positions by putting pressure on Ukraine once again to look to the East rather than the West,” he added.
In a call with US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, Russian leader Vladimir Putin asked for guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward, incorporating Ukraine and other countries that Russia deems to be within its influence zone.
In the words of Anušauskas, such requests demonstrate the Russian president’s old-fashioned thinking about foreign policy.
“Putin is a strong advocate of a Stalinist foreign policy. The partitioning of the world, or at least of Europe, along certain red lines, without taking into account the national interests of states, their needs, their expectations, their wishes... This attempt to sit down at a map and draw it is obsolete,” he said.
According to Anušauskas, Putin‘s expectations related to the military build-up near Ukraine will not become reality because “the world has changed”. But the situation might escalate even further, as Putin will get frustrated by his demands not being met.
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