Under the worst-case scenario, a strict quarantine in Lithuania may be necessary as early as the beginning of November, the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU) said on Tuesday.
Uncontrollable hotspots are dominating in the country and the spread of the virus might even exceed the worst-case projections, the scientists said, who based the projections on their own data and those of the Lithuanian Energy Institute.
They have carried out modeling of possible scenarios and say that if the daily rate of new coronavirus cases rises 5.8 percent every day, as it did in September, and severe cases that need hospitalisation make 8 percent of all coronavirus cases, then quarantine measures would need to be tightened after the All Souls' Day on November 2.
This way, it would be possible to reduce workload for medical institutions and ensure that Covid-19 patients across the country do not occupy more than the planned 1,000 hospital beds to treat the coronavirus, the scientists say.
As of Tuesday morning, some 10,400 out of the country's total of 17,300 hospital beds are occupied. Over half of all intensive care places are also taken – 368 out of 656.
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In the worst-case scenario, 1,000 beds will be occupied by coronavirus patients by the second half of November.
If 5 percent of all infected people were hospitalised, then tighter measures would have to be introduced in the country on November 12.
The scientists also say that despite the preventive measures, there's a high risk that the spread of the infection in Lithuania might reach the level seen in the Czech Republic, which has recorded a 7-percent rise of new cases each day.
In such a case, the planned number of hospital beds in Lithuania would be fully filled sooner than planned.
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In early October, new confirmed cases of the coronavirus rose by 3 percent each day. If the rate prevails, a stricter quarantine would be required in mid-December.
The scientists also said that only 400 beds are allocated for Covid-19 patients in hospitals of Lithuania's major cities, and they might be filled earlier than in the regions.
Therefore, it is now important to allocate additional beds and continue tracing contacts if self-isolation is necessary. It's also important for people to remain responsible and use personal protective measures, maintain hygiene and keep their distance.
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